{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.30 vs. cons ~$2.15 (+7%)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.96B vs. cons ~$2.87B (+3%)",
      "confidence": "HIGH"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Energy (exchanges) transaction revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$770M vs. cons ~$695M (+11%)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted operating expense (Q3'26)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.045B vs. cons ~$1.040B (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 adjusted opex guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$4.18B vs. cons ~$4.17B (FY2026); modest revenue-driven raise possible",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Energy open interest / forward volume commentary",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "OI pred ~+18% y/y held post-March vs. cons/feared roll-over ~flat (fwd/Q3)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Mortgage recurring revenue outlook",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~flat vs. cons ~$540M (Q3 2026); refi tailwind at risk if Fed hikes",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Expect a genuine record quarter and a clean beat on energy/rates, but the stock ran ~+25% off its late-June low and ~+8% in the two sessions into the print, pricing in a beat-and-sustain. Energy transaction revenue is a war/volatility windfall the market treats as peak-cyclical, so even after the beat sell-side out-quarter (Q3/Q4) models get trimmed on mean-reversion of energy ADV/OI and refi-driven mortgage upside that reverses if the Fed hikes. That implicit-cut, out-period math pulls estimates and the multiple down after an initial pop, driving a fade rather than follow-through.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}