ICE Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ICE Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$1.90 vs. cons $1.84 MEDIUM
ICE Report Total Net Revenue BEAT pred ~$2.72B vs. cons $2.65B MEDIUM
ICE Report Exchanges Segment Net Revenue IN-LINE pred ~$1.46B vs. cons $1.45B LOW
ICE Guide FY2026 Adjusted Operating Expense UNCHANGED guide ~$4.17B vs. cons $4.16B (FY2026) MEDIUM
ICE Guide FIDS Data & Network Technology recurring revenue growth LOWER guide ~6% vs. cons 9% (H2 2026) MEDIUM
ICE Guide FY2026 Exchanges segment net revenue growth (durability of rates/energy OI) BETTER guide ~15% vs. cons 12% (FY2026) LOW
ICE Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.5% MEDIUM
ICE Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.5% (FADE) A modest EPS/revenue beat against an already-lowered bar (consensus cut ~7% over 90 days) likely drives an initial pop, but management's flagged H2 deceleration in FIDS Data & Network Technology (post-Mahwah Hall 5 buildout) and normalizing energy open interest comps should prompt sell-side analysts to trim FY26/2027 estimates even after the Q2 beat - classic 'beat-but-cut-forward' out-period math. With the stock already up ~25% off its June lows into the print, there is limited room for follow-through without a blowout, making a partial giveback of Day-1 gains over the next several sessions the more likely path as estimate revisions catch up to the cautious guidance tone. MEDIUM