Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview

Company

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.

Ticker

ICE (NYSE)

Reporting Period

Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026)

Earnings Date

July 30, 2026 — 8:30 AM ET

Prepared

July 29, 2026

1. Earnings Preview

Key Takeaway: Setup leans toward a beat — consensus has drifted lower since Q1's record print while open interest and volume data already in the public domain point to a constructive quarter; the biggest swing factor is whether energy and interest rate transaction revenue can sustain Q1's extraordinary pace or revert toward seasonal norms.

The bar heading into Q2 2026 is manageable. Consensus adjusted EPS of ~$1.83 sits roughly 22% below Q1's record $2.35, a reset that reflects both the one-time nature of Q1's geopolitical volume surge and management's own guidance that mortgage technology recurring revenue would remain flat sequentially (stripping out ~$4M of Q1 one-time items). Yet the real-time volume data available to the market tells a more constructive story: energy open interest was up 8% year-to-date as of the Piper Sandler conference on June 3, and total F&O open interest hit new records in late April, up 20%+ year-over-year — signals that structural demand, not episodic volatility, is driving ICE's exchange business. Management's tone since Q1 has been unambiguously bullish — CEO Sprecher described the business as 'firing on all cylinders' at the Bernstein conference in May, and COO Williams reinforced the energy structural thesis at Piper Sandler in June, citing LNG globalization and AI power demand as durable tailwinds. Estimate revisions have been modestly negative since Q1 (consensus 2Q EPS moved from ~$1.93 to ~$1.83), suggesting the street has already de-risked the quarter, which creates asymmetric upside if volumes held up through May and June. The stock has underperformed sharply since Q1 earnings — down ~22% from the April 30 close to the late-June trough before recovering to ~$154 today — driven almost entirely by multiple compression rather than estimate cuts, leaving the setup less stretched than it was entering Q1. The key wildcard is the SPGI miss reported July 28 (shares fell ~7.7% on energy data pricing headwinds from the Iran war), which raises the question of whether macro disruption is a headwind or tailwind for ICE's transaction-heavy model — historically, geopolitical volatility has been a net positive for ICE's energy complex.

Bar: Consensus net revenue (ex-transaction expenses) of ~$2.62B for Q2 2026 represents a ~12% sequential decline from Q1's record $2.98B — a low bar given that open interest data and management commentary both point to continued structural strength in energy and rates. The bar on adjusted EPS (~$1.83) is similarly undemanding relative to the underlying business trajectory.

Guidance/Tone: Management has not changed formal guidance since Q1 earnings (opex guided $1.030–$1.040B for Q2, mortgage recurring revenue guided flat). Tone at both the Bernstein and Piper Sandler conferences was constructive-to-bullish, with no cautionary language on volumes or pricing.

Estimate Trajectory: Q2 EPS estimates have drifted ~5% lower since the Q1 print (from ~$1.93 to ~$1.83), while full-year 2026 estimates have moved modestly lower (~$8.12 to ~$7.99). The gap between guidance and consensus is narrow, suggesting limited downside from estimate cuts but meaningful upside if volumes surprised to the high side.

Stock Setup: ICE trades at ~18x NTM P/E vs. a 12-month trailing multiple of ~25x — a significant de-rating that management has attributed to the 'SaaS apocalypse' narrative around data monetization in an AI world. The stock has recovered ~25% from its late-June trough but remains ~16% below year-ago levels, leaving the multiple at a level that does not require a heroic beat to work.

Wildcard: The SPGI Q2 miss (July 28) on energy data pricing headwinds from the Iran war is the most relevant near-term read-through — if the Iran conflict is compressing pricing power for energy data, ICE's FIDS segment could face a similar headwind. Conversely, if the conflict is driving incremental hedging demand (ICE's historical pattern), transaction revenue could surprise to the upside.

2. KPIs & Consensus Expectations

Key Takeaway: Consensus sets a manageable bar across all key metrics — net revenue and adjusted EPS are both well below Q1's record levels, reflecting seasonal normalization. Total F&O daily volume is the bigger swing factor: open interest data already in the public domain suggests volumes held up better than the ~10M contracts/day consensus implies, creating potential upside to both transaction revenue and EPS.

Table 1 — Current Quarter Snapshot (Q2 2026)

KPI

Q1 2026 Actual

Q2 2025 Actual (Prior Year)

Q2 2026 Consensus Estimate

YoY Change

Guidance

Consensus vs. Guidance

Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)

$2.35

$1.81

$1.83

+1.1%

No formal guidance

N/A

Net Revenue ex-Transaction Expenses ($B)

$2.977B

$2.543B

$2.621B

+3.1%

No formal guidance

N/A

Total F&O Daily Volume (K contracts)

14,465K

10,058K

9,999K

-0.6%

No formal guidance

N/A

Total Transaction Revenue ($B)

$1.657B

$1.287B

$1.289B

+0.2%

No formal guidance

N/A

Mortgage Technology Recurring Revenue ($M)

$401M

$395M

$402M

+1.8%

~$397M (flat to Q1 ex-$4M one-time)

+1.3% above guidance midpoint

Adjusted Operating Expenses ($B)

$1.035B

N/A — not in VA

N/A — not in VA

N/A

$1.030–$1.040B

N/A

Sources: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data — Adjusted Diluted EPS, Net Revenue ex-Transaction Expenses, Total F&O Daily Volume, Total Transaction Revenue, Mortgage Technology Recurring Revenue. Q2 2026 consensus as of July 29, 2026. Adjusted Operating Expenses guidance from Q1 2026 earnings call (April 30, 2026).

Table 2 — Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters)

Adjusted Diluted EPS

Quarter

Reported ($)

Consensus ($)

Surprise %

Result

Q1 2026

$2.35

$2.25

+4.4%

Beat

Q4 2025

$1.71

$1.67

+2.4%

Beat

Q3 2025

$1.71

$1.61

+6.2%

Beat

Q2 2025

$1.81

$1.77

+2.3%

Beat

Q1 2025

$1.72

$1.70

+1.2%

Beat

Q4 2024

$1.52

$1.49

+2.0%

Beat

Q3 2024

$1.55

$1.55

0.0%

In-Line

Q2 2024

N/A — not in VA for this period

N/A

N/A

N/A

Total F&O Daily Volume

Quarter

Reported (K)

Consensus (K)

Surprise %

Result

Q1 2026

14,465K

14,459K

+0.04%

In-Line

Q4 2025

9,080K

9,086K

-0.1%

In-Line

Q3 2025

8,001K

7,991K

+0.1%

In-Line

Q2 2025

10,058K

10,060K

-0.02%

In-Line

Q1 2025

9,968K

9,938K

+0.3%

In-Line

Q4 2024

8,464K

8,453K

+0.1%

In-Line

Q3 2024

7,987K

7,987K

0.0%

In-Line

Q2 2024

N/A — not in VA for this period

N/A

N/A

N/A

ICE has beaten adjusted EPS consensus in 6 of the last 7 reported quarters, with beats typically in the +2–6% range. Volume surprises are consistently minimal (within ±0.3%), suggesting the street models volumes accurately but tends to underestimate operating leverage and expense discipline. Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.

3. Guidance & Commentary Evolution

Key Takeaway: Formal guidance is unchanged since Q1 earnings — opex guided $1.030–$1.040B and mortgage recurring revenue guided flat. Management tone has shifted more bullish at post-earnings conferences, with energy open interest up 8% YTD and the business described as 'firing on all cylinders' — no cautionary signals on any segment.

Metric

Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Earnings Call, Apr 30)

Revised Guidance

Current Consensus

Note

Adjusted Operating Expenses (Q2 2026)

$1.030B – $1.040B

Unchanged

N/A — not in VA

Consistent with Q1 actual of $1.035B; no post-earnings revision

Mortgage Technology Recurring Revenue (Q2 2026)

~Flat to Q1 (~$397M, ex-$4M one-time items)

Unchanged

$402M

Consensus slightly above guidance midpoint; Huntington Bank Encompass win (April) is incremental positive

Energy Open Interest (Q2 trend)

Up 6% through April (Q1 call)

Up 8% YTD (Piper Sandler, June 3)

N/A — not a consensus KPI

↑ Improved at Piper Sandler conference June 3; COO Williams cited LNG globalization and AI power demand as structural drivers

Total F&O Open Interest (Q2 trend)

New records, up 20%+ YoY (Q1 call)

Records continued into Q2 (Bernstein, May 27)

N/A — not a consensus KPI

↑ Reinforced at Bernstein conference May 27; CEO Sprecher described business as 'firing on all cylinders'

Data Center Capacity (FIDS)

Hall 5 sold out; Hall 6 selling; H2 2026 data network growth 'a little lighter' due to comps

Chicago colo facility announced (Piper Sandler, June 3)

N/A

↑ New Chicago colo facility announced at Piper Sandler; forward auctions providing multi-year demand visibility

FY 2026 Adjusted EPS

No formal FY guidance provided

Unchanged

$7.99

Consensus has drifted ~2% lower since Q1 print; no management guidance to anchor

4. Guidance vs. Estimate Revision Tracker

Key Takeaway: Estimates have drifted modestly lower since Q1 earnings across both Q2 and FY2026, with Q2 EPS down ~5% and FY EPS down ~2% from the post-print baseline. The revision trend is mild and orderly — not a sign of deteriorating fundamentals but rather a de-risking of Q1's extraordinary volume levels. Consensus sits slightly above management's only formal guidance (mortgage recurring revenue), suggesting no meaningful gap risk on the guided line.

KPI / Period

Estimate ~5 Days Post Q1 Earnings (May 7, 2026)

Current Consensus (Jul 29, 2026)

Estimate Δ (%)

Initial Guidance (Q1 Call)

Current Guidance

Guidance Δ

Consensus vs. Guidance (%)

Adj. EPS — Q2 2026

$1.93

$1.83

-5.2%

No formal guidance

No formal guidance

N/A

N/A

Adj. EPS — FY 2026

$8.12

$7.99

-1.6%

No formal guidance

No formal guidance

N/A

N/A

Net Revenue ex-Trans. Exp. — Q2 2026

$2.694B

$2.621B

-2.7%

No formal guidance

No formal guidance

N/A

N/A

Net Revenue ex-Trans. Exp. — FY 2026

$11.04B

$10.95B

-0.8%

No formal guidance

No formal guidance

N/A

N/A

Total F&O Daily Volume — Q2 2026

10,745K

9,999K

-6.9%

No formal guidance

No formal guidance

N/A

N/A

Mtg. Tech. Recurring Rev. — Q2 2026

$403M

$402M

-0.1%

~$397M (flat to Q1 ex-one-time)

Unchanged

Unchanged

+1.3% above guidance

Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Post-Q1 baseline uses consensus as of May 7, 2026 (approximately 5 trading days after the April 30 earnings release). Current consensus as of July 29, 2026. The most notable revision is the ~7% cut to Q2 F&O daily volume consensus, reflecting the street's de-risking of Q1's extraordinary geopolitical-driven volume spike. However, management's open interest commentary at conferences (up 8% YTD energy OI as of June 3) suggests the volume cut may be too aggressive.

5. Stock Performance

Key Takeaway: ICE has dramatically underperformed both XLF and the S&P 500 since Q1 earnings, falling ~22% to a late-June trough before recovering to ~$154 today. The selloff was almost entirely multiple-driven (NTM P/E compressed from ~23x to ~14x over 6 months) rather than estimate-driven, suggesting the stock was pricing in a structural deterioration that management's conference commentary does not support.

Sector ETF used: XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund) — appropriate for ICE as a diversified financial infrastructure company. ICE is a top-10 holding in XLF.

Indexed Performance Since Apr 30, 2026 (Base = 100)

Apr 30

Late-June Trough

Jul 29, 2026

ICE

100.0

~77.7 (Jun 29: $122.91)

97.6 ($154.28)

XLF

100.0

~103.1 (Jun 29: $53.72)

108.7 ($56.68)

S&P 500 (SPY)

100.0

~103.1 (Jun 29: $741.00)

101.5 ($729.46)

Key Events Since Q1 Earnings (April 30, 2026):

Performance decomposition: Over the trailing 6 months, ICE's NTM EV/EBITDA multiple compressed from ~16.6x to ~13.9x (a ~16% contraction), while the stock fell ~11%. Over 12 months, the multiple compressed ~23% while the stock fell ~16% — confirming that virtually all of the underperformance is multiple-driven, not earnings-driven. The 1-month recovery (+25.6%) has been almost entirely multiple expansion (+19%), with limited contribution from estimate revisions. Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance).

6. Material News & Developments

Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the CME vs. CFTC lawsuit over perpetual futures classification (June 17) — a regulatory battle that directly affects ICE's competitive positioning and its OKX partnership strategy. The SPGI Q2 miss (July 28) is the most relevant near-term read-through for ICE's FIDS segment heading into tomorrow's print.

7. Peer Commentaries — Last 60 Days / Q2 2026 Read-Through

Key Takeaway: Peer commentary from CME (Q2 earnings, July 22), NDAQ (Q2 earnings, July 23), and MKTX (Morgan Stanley conference, June 9) collectively paint a picture of record or near-record Q2 trading volumes, accelerating data demand driven by AI and digital assets, and a robust IPO environment — all of which are direct tailwinds for ICE's exchange, FIDS, and listings businesses. The only cautionary note is the SPGI miss on energy data pricing, which warrants monitoring for ICE's FIDS segment.

Note: Only commentary specifically about Q2 2026 conditions or post-Q1 2026 observations is included below. Prior-quarter-only commentary has been excluded.

CME Group (CME) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call, July 22, 2026

Relevance to ICE: CME is ICE's closest competitor in derivatives and energy futures. CME's Q2 results are the single most important peer read-through for ICE's exchange segment.

Nasdaq (NDAQ) — Q2 2026 Earnings Call, July 23, 2026

Relevance to ICE: NDAQ competes directly with ICE's NYSE for listings and U.S. equity market share. NDAQ's data and fintech businesses are also direct analogs to ICE's FIDS segment.

MarketAxess (MKTX) — Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials Conference, June 9, 2026

Relevance to ICE: MKTX is the leading electronic fixed income trading venue. Its commentary on Q2 fixed income market conditions is a direct read-through for ICE's fixed income execution and data businesses.

S&P Global (SPGI) — Q2 2026 Earnings, July 28, 2026 (Cautionary Read-Through)

Relevance to ICE: SPGI's energy data and analytics business (Platts/Commodity Insights) is a partial analog to ICE's FIDS energy data offerings. SPGI's miss is the most relevant cautionary read-through heading into ICE's print.

8. Insider Transaction Activity

Key Takeaway: All insider transactions since Q1 earnings are 10b5-1 planned sales — no discretionary open-market selling and no open-market buying. The activity is routine and does not signal any unusual insider view on the upcoming print. The absence of discretionary buying despite a ~22% stock decline from the Q1 close to the late-June trough is notable but not alarming given the pre-planned nature of all transactions.

Name

Title

Transaction Type

Shares

Approx. Value

Transaction Date

Note

Lynn C. Martin

President, NYSE Group

10b5-1 Planned Sale

15,882

~$2.22M

July 16, 2026

Pre-planned; 10b5-1 plan established May 29, 2025; sold 23% of direct holdings

William Jefferson Hague

Director

10b5-1 Planned Sale

1,333

~$0.19M (est.)

June 12, 2026

Pre-planned; routine director sale

William Jefferson Hague

Director

10b5-1 Planned Sale

91

~$0.01M (est.)

June 9, 2026

Pre-planned; small routine director sale

Sharon Bowen

Director

10b5-1 Planned Sale

667

~$0.10M (est.)

May 22, 2026

Pre-planned; routine director sale

Warren Gardiner

Chief Financial Officer

10b5-1 Planned Sale

2,490

~$0.38M (est.)

May 19, 2026

Pre-planned; CFO sale, routine

Source: SEC Form 4 Filings. All transactions are open-market sales under pre-established 10b5-1 trading plans. No discretionary open-market purchases or sales were identified in the period since Q1 earnings (April 30, 2026 through July 29, 2026). The CFO (Warren Gardiner) sale in May is the most notable given his role, but the pre-planned nature removes any informational content. No 10b5-1 plan initiations were filed in the period, which is consistent with the pre-earnings quiet period.