INVH Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
INVH Report Core FFO / share IN-LINE pred ~$0.48 vs. cons $0.48 MEDIUM
INVH Report Same-Store NOI growth (YoY) IN-LINE pred ~+0.8% vs. cons ~+1.0% MEDIUM
INVH Report Blended lease rate / SS revenue growth MISS pred blended ~+2.0% vs. cons ~+2.8% (SS rev pred ~+1.6% vs cons ~+2.0%) MEDIUM
INVH Guide FY26 Core FFO/share UNCHANGED guide reaffirm $1.90–$1.98 (mid $1.94) vs. cons $1.94 (FY26) MEDIUM
INVH Guide FY26 SS NOI growth UNCHANGED guide reaffirm 0.3%–2.0% (mid ~1.15%) vs. cons ~1.2% (FY26) MEDIUM
INVH Guide FY26 SS Core Revenue growth LOWER guide likely trimmed toward ~1.3%–2.0% (mid ~1.7%) vs. cons ~1.9% (FY26) LOW
INVH Guide FY26 dispositions / buyback pace BETTER guide dispositions ~$600M+ vs. cons/plan $550M; buyback deployed ~$150M+ of new $500M (FY26) MEDIUM
INVH Guide Occupancy durability (peak-season) UNKNOWN pred Q2 avg occ ~96.7% vs. Q2'25 comp 97.2%; sustain vs fade is swing factor LOW
INVH Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -1.5% MEDIUM
INVH Return 5-day cumulative residual -2.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) Stock ran from ~$28 to $30 into the print, leaving little cushion. A reaffirm-not-raise outcome against tougher Q2'25 comps (97.2% occ, +4.0% blended) plus soft Sunbelt new-lease pricing reads as conservative; holding a $1.94 FFO midpoint while 1H tracks in-line implies flat-to-lower 2H run-rate, so out-period math pulls SS revenue/NOI estimates down even if headline FFO is in-line. Disposition/buyback arbitrage cushions but is 'not hugely material,' so the negative day-1 reaction extends rather than reverses. LOW