{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Core FFO / share",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.48 vs. cons $0.48",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Same-Store NOI growth (YoY)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~+0.8% vs. cons ~+1.0%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Blended lease rate / SS revenue growth",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred blended ~+2.0% vs. cons ~+2.8% (SS rev pred ~+1.6% vs cons ~+2.0%)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 Core FFO/share",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide reaffirm $1.90\u2013$1.98 (mid $1.94) vs. cons $1.94 (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 SS NOI growth",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide reaffirm 0.3%\u20132.0% (mid ~1.15%) vs. cons ~1.2% (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 SS Core Revenue growth",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide likely trimmed toward ~1.3%\u20132.0% (mid ~1.7%) vs. cons ~1.9% (FY26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 dispositions / buyback pace",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide dispositions ~$600M+ vs. cons/plan $550M; buyback deployed ~$150M+ of new $500M (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Occupancy durability (peak-season)",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "pred Q2 avg occ ~96.7% vs. Q2'25 comp 97.2%; sustain vs fade is swing factor",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Stock ran from ~$28 to $30 into the print, leaving little cushion. A reaffirm-not-raise outcome against tougher Q2'25 comps (97.2% occ, +4.0% blended) plus soft Sunbelt new-lease pricing reads as conservative; holding a $1.94 FFO midpoint while 1H tracks in-line implies flat-to-lower 2H run-rate, so out-period math pulls SS revenue/NOI estimates down even if headline FFO is in-line. Disposition/buyback arbitrage cushions but is 'not hugely material,' so the negative day-1 reaction extends rather than reverses.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}