| IP |
Report |
Adj. EBITDA (continuing ops) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$555M vs. cons ~$545M |
MEDIUM |
| IP |
Report |
Adj. operating EPS |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$0.08 vs. cons ~$0.07 |
LOW |
| IP |
Report |
NA box shipments YoY/day |
BEAT |
pred ~+3% vs. cons ~+1% |
MEDIUM |
| IP |
Guide |
FY2026 enterprise adj. EBITDA |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$3.35B (reaffirm $3.20-3.50B) vs. cons ~$3.35B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| IP |
Guide |
Sept 1 containerboard price increase (not in guide) |
BETTER |
guide ~+$80/ton vs. cons ~$0/ton embedded (2H26/2027 upside) |
MEDIUM |
| IP |
Guide |
2H26 NA EBITDA step-up credibility |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~+$650M 2H step-up vs. cons ~+$600M (2H26) |
LOW |
| IP |
Guide |
EMEA separation timeline |
UNKNOWN |
guide ~12-15 months vs. prior ~12-15 months (2027 close) |
LOW |
| IP |
Guide |
FY2026 free cash flow |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$300-500M vs. cons ~$400M (FY2026) |
LOW |
| IP |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| IP |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-4.0% (FADE) |
Stock front-ran the print with a ~17% three-day rally and a JPM upgrade to $61, so the improved pricing story (Sept $80/ton, PKG $140/ton) and 2H ramp are already largely priced in. Q2 is a designed trough (near-breakeven EPS, doubled outages, Riverdale, EMEA margin lag), and the Sept increase is not yet in guidance, so a reaffirm-only FY framework offers little fresh upside. Out-period math is neutral-to-slightly-up (pricing supports 2H/2027 estimates) but not enough to sustain the euphoria; profit-taking and skepticism on 2H hockey-stick/80-20 cost-out credibility drive a fade after an in-line-to-soft trailing quarter. |
LOW |