{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adj. EBITDA (continuing ops)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$555M vs. cons ~$545M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adj. operating EPS",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.08 vs. cons ~$0.07",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "NA box shipments YoY/day",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~+3% vs. cons ~+1%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 enterprise adj. EBITDA",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$3.35B (reaffirm $3.20-3.50B) vs. cons ~$3.35B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Sept 1 containerboard price increase (not in guide)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~+$80/ton vs. cons ~$0/ton embedded (2H26/2027 upside)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "2H26 NA EBITDA step-up credibility",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~+$650M 2H step-up vs. cons ~+$600M (2H26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "EMEA separation timeline",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~12-15 months vs. prior ~12-15 months (2027 close)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 free cash flow",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$300-500M vs. cons ~$400M (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -4.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Stock front-ran the print with a ~17% three-day rally and a JPM upgrade to $61, so the improved pricing story (Sept $80/ton, PKG $140/ton) and 2H ramp are already largely priced in. Q2 is a designed trough (near-breakeven EPS, doubled outages, Riverdale, EMEA margin lag), and the Sept increase is not yet in guidance, so a reaffirm-only FY framework offers little fresh upside. Out-period math is neutral-to-slightly-up (pricing supports 2H/2027 estimates) but not enough to sustain the euphoria; profit-taking and skepticism on 2H hockey-stick/80-20 cost-out credibility drive a fade after an in-line-to-soft trailing quarter.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}