| IP |
Report |
Enterprise Adjusted EBITDA (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~$555M vs. cons ~$545M |
MEDIUM |
| IP |
Report |
Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026) |
BEAT |
pred ~-$0.02 vs. cons -$0.03 |
LOW |
| IP |
Report |
Net Sales/Revenue (Q2 2026) |
MISS |
pred ~$6.10B vs. cons $6.17B |
MEDIUM |
| IP |
Guide |
FY2026 Enterprise Adjusted EBITDA guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$3.35B (reaffirmed $3.2B-$3.5B midpoint) vs. cons ~$3.35B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| IP |
Guide |
FY2026 Free Cash Flow guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$400M (reaffirmed $300M-$500M midpoint) vs. cons ~$400M (FY2026) |
LOW |
| IP |
Guide |
H2 2026 EBITDA bridge / incremental pricing commentary |
BETTER |
guide ~$620M H2 step-up commentary (incl. new $80-140/ton NA hikes) vs. cons ~$600M prior H2 assumption (H2 2026) |
LOW |
| IP |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| IP |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-4.0% (FADE) |
Stock already rallied ~26% in three weeks (17% in the last 3 sessions alone) purely on forward-looking containerboard price hikes and the JPM upgrade, not on Q2 results themselves — expectations have run well ahead of the actual print. Even a credibility-restoring in-line/slight-beat quarter is unlikely to justify further re-rating if FY26 EBITDA/FCF guidance is merely reaffirmed rather than raised, since the new Sept-1 pricing wave only affects ~4 months of FY26 and was explicitly flagged as mostly a 2027 tailwind. With four consecutive Zacks misses in investors' memory, any softness in EMEA margin-trough commentary or NA execution (reliability/ancillary cost risk) gives skittish holders a reason to take profits, and sell-side models likely trim out-period (FY26) estimates modestly to reflect that most incremental pricing upside is pushed into 2027, producing a fade after an initial muted/negative reaction. |
MEDIUM |