{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Enterprise Adjusted EBITDA (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$555M vs. cons ~$545M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~-$0.02 vs. cons -$0.03",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net Sales/Revenue (Q2 2026)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$6.10B vs. cons $6.17B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Enterprise Adjusted EBITDA guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$3.35B (reaffirmed $3.2B-$3.5B midpoint) vs. cons ~$3.35B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Free Cash Flow guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$400M (reaffirmed $300M-$500M midpoint) vs. cons ~$400M (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "H2 2026 EBITDA bridge / incremental pricing commentary",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$620M H2 step-up commentary (incl. new $80-140/ton NA hikes) vs. cons ~$600M prior H2 assumption (H2 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -4.0,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Stock already rallied ~26% in three weeks (17% in the last 3 sessions alone) purely on forward-looking containerboard price hikes and the JPM upgrade, not on Q2 results themselves \u2014 expectations have run well ahead of the actual print. Even a credibility-restoring in-line/slight-beat quarter is unlikely to justify further re-rating if FY26 EBITDA/FCF guidance is merely reaffirmed rather than raised, since the new Sept-1 pricing wave only affects ~4 months of FY26 and was explicitly flagged as mostly a 2027 tailwind. With four consecutive Zacks misses in investors' memory, any softness in EMEA margin-trough commentary or NA execution (reliability/ancillary cost risk) gives skittish holders a reason to take profits, and sell-side models likely trim out-period (FY26) estimates modestly to reflect that most incremental pricing upside is pushed into 2027, producing a fade after an initial muted/negative reaction.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}