| IP |
Report |
Adjusted EBITDA |
MISS |
pred ~$535M vs. cons $545M |
MEDIUM |
| IP |
Report |
Packaging Solutions North America adjusted EBITDA |
MISS |
pred ~$387M vs. cons $395M |
MEDIUM |
| IP |
Report |
Adjusted operating EPS |
MISS |
pred ~$(0.05) vs. cons $(0.03) |
MEDIUM |
| IP |
Guide |
FY2026 adjusted EBITDA |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$3.20B-$3.50B vs. cons $3.35B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| IP |
Guide |
3Q26 adjusted EBITDA outlook |
LOWER |
guide ~$880M-$930M vs. cons $940M (3Q2026) |
MEDIUM |
| IP |
Guide |
September containerboard price increase realization |
BETTER |
guide ~$80/ton vs. cons $50/ton (2H2026) |
MEDIUM |
| IP |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-5.5% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| IP |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-8.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
A ~$10M EBITDA miss versus $545M consensus and a ~$905M 3Q guide midpoint versus $940M consensus expose weaker near-term execution; maintaining FY2026 EBITDA at a $3.35B midpoint shifts more of the recovery into 4Q, prompting out-period estimate cuts despite the ~$80/ton price action. |
MEDIUM |