{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$535M vs. cons $545M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Packaging Solutions North America adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$387M vs. cons $395M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted operating EPS",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$(0.05) vs. cons $(0.03)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$3.20B-$3.50B vs. cons $3.35B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "3Q26 adjusted EBITDA outlook",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$880M-$930M vs. cons $940M (3Q2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "September containerboard price increase realization",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$80/ton vs. cons $50/ton (2H2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -5.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -8.0,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "A ~$10M EBITDA miss versus $545M consensus and a ~$905M 3Q guide midpoint versus $940M consensus expose weaker near-term execution; maintaining FY2026 EBITDA at a $3.35B midpoint shifts more of the recovery into 4Q, prompting out-period estimate cuts despite the ~$80/ton price action.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}