IP Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
IP Report Enterprise Adj. EBITDA (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$548M vs. cons $539.5M MEDIUM
IP Report NA Packaging Adj. EBITDA (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~$400M vs. cons $397.7M MEDIUM
IP Report EMEA Packaging Adj. EBITDA (Q2 2026) MISS pred ~$155M vs. cons $159.3M MEDIUM
IP Guide Enterprise Adj. EBITDA (FY 2026) UNCHANGED guide reaffirm $3.2-3.5B vs. cons $3.234B HIGH
IP Guide Q3 2026 qualitative pricing/H2 bridge BETTER guide BETTER — confirms $70/ton flowing through, H2 step-up intact MEDIUM
IP Guide EMEA Q3 2026 trajectory BETTER guide BETTER vs. Q2 trough — margin recovery begins; UNVERIFIED exact consensus LOW
IP Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -6.0% MEDIUM
IP Return 5-day cumulative residual -3.0% (STABILIZE) STABILIZE — implied H2 math (+5.8% above VA consensus) provides partial recovery bid, but +38.5% idiosyncratic pre-run limits upside; short covering partially offsets initial selloff MEDIUM