ITW Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-28

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
ITW Report Adjusted EPS (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$2.86 vs. cons $2.80 HIGH
ITW Report Total Revenue (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~$4.17B vs. cons $4.18B MEDIUM
ITW Report Operating Margin (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~26.9% vs. cons 26.8% MEDIUM
ITW Guide FY2026 EPS Guidance BETTER guide ~$11.20-$11.60 ($11.40 mid) vs. cons $11.37 (FY2026) MEDIUM
ITW Guide FY2026 Organic Growth Guidance BETTER guide ~2-3% (2.5% mid) vs. cons ~2.0% implied (FY2026) MEDIUM
ITW Guide FY2026 Operating Margin Guidance UNCHANGED guide ~26.5%-27.5% (27.0% mid) vs. cons ~27.0% (FY2026) MEDIUM
ITW Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.0% MEDIUM
ITW Return 5-day cumulative residual -3.5% (FADE) Q1 2026's actual beat-and-raise print still saw ITW fall ~2.9% day-1 and underperform SPY by ~5pts by day 5, showing the stock is priced for perfection (Hold rating, PT roughly at spot, 25x+ multiple) even when fundamentals execute. With shares up another ~7% into this print and already near highs, a repeat 'sell-the-news' pattern is likely: even a clean EPS beat and modest guide raise won't be enough to justify further re-rating, and sell-side will likely trim back-half organic growth/margin assumptions if Food Equipment/Auto OEM normalization or Specialty Products catch-up disappoint even slightly, extending the initial negative reaction through the week rather than reversing it. MEDIUM