{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.68 vs. cons ~$0.63",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net revenues",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.34B vs. cons ~$1.30B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted operating margin",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~37.5% vs. cons ~36.0%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 net long-term inflows (organic growth durability)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$20B vs. cons ~$16B (Q2-26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 adjusted operating expense framework",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$3.275B vs. cons ~$3.28B (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY26 total capital-return payout ratio",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~60% vs. cons ~55% (FY26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "QQQ fee/flow retention vs. new Nasdaq-100 competition",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "QQQ ~$490B AUM at 8bp license vs. cons flat-to-modest-leakage (H2-26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.8,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 2.0,
  "day5_path": "STABILIZE",
  "day5_rationale": "Quarter's beat is largely mechanical since monthly AUM disclosures already telegraph ~7% higher average AUM, so the print is well anticipated and the stock has already rerated (+11.8% YTD, pressing YTD highs, beta ~1.73). A clean EPS/margin beat plus reassuring QQQ commentary supports a modest day-1 pop, but elevated expectations cap upside and invite partial sell-the-news. Out-period math is a wash: record ~$2.47T ending AUM lifts the Q3 revenue base (upward revisions), but the CI Financial ~$19B transfer drag in H2 and QQQ competitive/fee-leakage risk offset it, so estimates hold rather than ratchet \u2014 day-1 gain roughly stabilizes rather than follows through or fully fades.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}