| JCI |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.31 vs. cons $1.29 |
MEDIUM |
| JCI |
Report |
Organic Sales Growth (consolidated) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~6.3% vs. cons 6.2% |
MEDIUM |
| JCI |
Report |
Orders Growth (organic, YoY) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~20% vs. cons 20% |
LOW |
| JCI |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted EPS Guidance |
BETTER |
guide ~$4.92 vs. cons $4.90 (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| JCI |
Guide |
FY2026 Organic Sales Growth Guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~6.0% vs. cons 6.0% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| JCI |
Guide |
Implied Q4 FY2026 Organic Growth (back-solved from FY raise vs Q3 actual) |
LOWER |
implied guide ~5.5% vs. cons ~6.5% (Q4 FY2026) |
LOW |
| JCI |
Guide |
FY2026 Operating Leverage Guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~50% vs. cons ~50% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| JCI |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+2.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| JCI |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
+0.3% (FADE) |
A likely modest Q3 EPS/organic beat plus a routine FY26 EPS nudge (to ~$4.92 from $4.85) is roughly in line with the quarter's beat magnitude, implying little to no upward revision to the already-de-risked Q4 embedded guide (back-solved Q4 organic growth ~5.5% vs. Street ~6.5%). With EMEA recovery pushed to Q4, security-service repricing still a drag, and orders decelerating from 30%+ toward the 20% area, sell-side models likely trim out-quarter estimates during the week even after an initial positive reaction, consistent with the stock's pre-print pullback from $148 to $140 reflecting position trimming into a 'beat-and-hold' setup that leaves little room for follow-through absent a materially larger raise or fresh orders/backlog upside surprise. |
LOW |