JCI Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
JCI Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$1.31 vs. cons $1.29 MEDIUM
JCI Report Organic sales growth BEAT pred ~6.5% vs. cons 6.1% MEDIUM
JCI Report Orders growth BEAT pred ~22% vs. cons 20% LOW
JCI Guide FY26 adjusted EPS guidance LOWER guide ~$4.85 vs. cons $4.88 (FY26) MEDIUM
JCI Guide Implied fiscal 4Q26 adjusted EPS LOWER guide ~$1.46 vs. cons $1.49 (4Q26) MEDIUM
JCI Guide FY26 organic sales-growth guidance LOWER guide ~6.0% vs. cons 6.2% (FY26) MEDIUM
JCI Guide Backlog conversion in the next 12 months LOWER guide ~70% vs. cons 72% (next 12 months) LOW
JCI Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.8% MEDIUM
JCI Return 5-day cumulative residual -5.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) A modest 3Q beat is likely outweighed by unchanged FY26 EPS of ~$4.85 versus ~$4.88 consensus, implying ~$1.46 for 4Q26 versus ~$1.49. That out-period shortfall, together with continued ~70% backlog-conversion timing, should pull FY26/FY27 revisions lower after the report. MEDIUM