{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted Net Income (EPS)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.44 vs. cons $1.43",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Fee Related Earnings / share",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.19 vs. cons ~$1.16",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Total AUM",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$783B vs. cons $788B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 ANI/share framing (the '$7+' walk-back)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$6.6 vs. cons ~$6.8 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Forward monetization pipeline (near-term realized carry)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$1.3B vs. prior $1.2B (next-12-mo pipeline)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Insurance (Global Atlantic) operating earnings run-rate",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide ~$300-330M vs. cons ~$310M (quarterly run-rate)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 fundraising / inflows",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$20B vs. cons ~$28B (2026Q2 raise, pre-signaled slowdown)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "KKR rallied ~14% off the late-June low (~$89 to ~$101) and +6% in the last week while the S&P was flat, so a low-bar FRE beat is largely priced in \u2014 setting up sell-the-news risk. Reported ANI likely only in-line as pre-signaled soft Q2 monetizations and a slower fundraising quarter cap the headline, and a second trim/soft framing of the full-year '$7+' ANI target (now 'below $7') forces out-period estimate cuts. Downward revisions after an in-line print drive continued idiosyncratic weakness (follow-through), only partly cushioned by cheap valuation, aggressive buybacks and insider buying.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}