KKR Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
KKR Report Total AUM IN-LINE pred ~$784B vs. cons $788B MEDIUM
KKR Report Adjusted (ANI) EPS MISS pred ~$1.36 vs. cons $1.43 MEDIUM
KKR Report Fee Related Earnings (FRE) per share BEAT pred ~$1.19 vs. cons $1.15 MEDIUM
KKR Guide FY2026 ANI per share outlook (vs. original $7+ target) LOWER guide ~$6.55 vs. cons $6.80 (FY2026) MEDIUM
KKR Guide Global Atlantic / insurance ROE trajectory UNCHANGED guide ~11.3% vs. cons/target ~12% low-double-digit (FY2026) LOW
KKR Guide LTM capital raised / fundraising pace UNCHANGED guide ~$128B vs. cons $132B LTM (FY2026) MEDIUM
KKR Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -1.6% MEDIUM
KKR Return 5-day cumulative residual -2.8% (FADE) An ANI/EPS miss driven by slower monetization (Iran-conflict/oil-spike/Fed-hike volatility) reinforces the Q1 walk-back of the $7+ full-year ANI target, prompting sell-side to trim out-year realized performance income estimates even though FRE/fee-earnings growth beats; the stock had already run up ~13% off its June lows into the print on DCC/BX-driven optimism, leaving little cushion for a miss on the most-watched line item, so initial modest downside likely extends over the week as estimate revisions catch down to the more cautious tone on insurance ROE/spread competition and monetization timing. MEDIUM