{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Total AUM",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$784B vs. cons $788B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted (ANI) EPS",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.36 vs. cons $1.43",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Fee Related Earnings (FRE) per share",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.19 vs. cons $1.15",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 ANI per share outlook (vs. original $7+ target)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$6.55 vs. cons $6.80 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Global Atlantic / insurance ROE trajectory",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~11.3% vs. cons/target ~12% low-double-digit (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "LTM capital raised / fundraising pace",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$128B vs. cons $132B LTM (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.6,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -2.8,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "An ANI/EPS miss driven by slower monetization (Iran-conflict/oil-spike/Fed-hike volatility) reinforces the Q1 walk-back of the $7+ full-year ANI target, prompting sell-side to trim out-year realized performance income estimates even though FRE/fee-earnings growth beats; the stock had already run up ~13% off its June lows into the print on DCC/BX-driven optimism, leaving little cushion for a miss on the most-watched line item, so initial modest downside likely extends over the week as estimate revisions catch down to the more cautious tone on insurance ROE/spread competition and monetization timing.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}