Report date: Thursday, July 30, 2026, before the NYSE open
Conference call: 9:00 a.m. ET
Closing share price on July 29: $101.25
KKR enters the quarter with a sharp disconnect between operating momentum and market sentiment. Its first-quarter recurring earnings metrics grew roughly 20% year over year, fundraising remained strong, and management described realization visibility as the best in the firm’s history. Yet the stock is down approximately 21% year to date, versus an 8% gain for the S&P 500.
The central question is therefore not simply whether KKR beats quarterly EPS. Investors need evidence that:
| Metric | Q2 2026 expectation | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted net income per share | $1.43 | +21% YoY; +3% QoQ |
| Total AUM | $788 billion | +15% YoY; +4% QoQ |
| Q2 2025 ANI per share | $1.18 | — |
| Q2 2025 FRE per share | $0.98 | — |
| Q2 2025 TOE per share | $1.33 | — |
Consensus figures can move into the report.
KKR produced $1.13 of fee-related earnings per share in Q1, up 23% year over year. Management fees increased 30% on a reported basis and slightly more than 20% excluding catch-up fees, while the FRE margin remained near 69%.
Management subsequently reiterated that it continued to expect 20%-plus FRE growth in 2026. That is arguably the most important operating benchmark for Thursday.
Investors should focus on:
A strong report would show another quarter of approximately 20% FRE-per-share growth without relying heavily on unusually high transaction fees or catch-up revenue.
KKR ended Q1 with $758 billion of AUM and $615 billion of fee-paying AUM. The Street expects Q2 AUM of about $788 billion, implying a $30 billion sequential increase.
However, KKR closed its acquisition of Arctos on May 5. Arctos brought approximately:
Arctos therefore could account for more than half of the expected sequential AUM increase. Investors should separate:
At the end of Q1, KKR also had $64 billion of committed AUM not yet paying fees, with an estimated weighted-average management fee of roughly 80 basis points. Conversion of this capital into fee-paying AUM is an important source of embedded earnings growth.
KKR generated approximately $880 million of gross monetization revenue in Q1, more than 50% above the prior year. At the May earnings call, management cited more than $1.2 billion of closed or signed forward monetization revenue, the largest such figure it had disclosed. Later in May, Co-CEO Scott Nuttall said the pipeline had increased further.
The portfolio has generated several strong outcomes, including OneStream, CoolIT Systems, Hyundai Marine Solutions, Kokusai Electric and the aerospace division of CIRCOR.
Nevertheless, management said in May that its original goal of $7-plus of 2026 ANI per share was more likely to be missed than achieved, primarily because market volatility could delay—not eliminate—certain exits.
Thursday’s key questions include:
KKR had $18.3 billion of total embedded gains at the end of Q1, including $10.2 billion of gross unrealized performance income. The issue is timing, not necessarily portfolio value. For that reason, updated realization commentary could move the stock more than a modest Q2 EPS beat or miss.
Global Atlantic produced $260 million of insurance operating earnings in Q1, essentially flat year over year despite continued asset growth. Management attributed the muted earnings progression to:
Management estimated Q1 insurance operating earnings would have exceeded $300 million if certain investment appreciation were recognized and would have been closer to $330 million at its targeted investment return.
Investors should watch:
The broader economics are stronger than the segment’s reported operating earnings alone. Total insurance economics—including asset-management and related capital-markets fees—reached $1.9 billion over the 12 months through Q1, up 14%. Still, a clearer path to higher insurance ROE would remove an important investor concern.
Strategic Holdings generated only $48 million of operating earnings in Q1, but KKR maintained its target of:
Management explicitly said 2026 earnings would be back-end weighted. Reaching the full-year target requires more than $300 million during Q2 through Q4, so investors should not necessarily expect a linear quarterly progression.
The important signals will be whether KKR:
A reaffirmation matters more than the precise Q2 contribution.
KKR’s K-Series wealth platform ended Q1 with more than $38 billion of AUM, up from $21 billion a year earlier. It raised approximately $4 billion during Q1, with redemptions of roughly $250 million.
Management had expected Q2 wealth inflows to slow following negative industry headlines. However, subsequent conference commentary remained constructive:
KKR also emphasized that direct lending represents only about 5% of total AUM, while its private BDC exposure is less than 0.5%. Investors should avoid treating isolated public-BDC credit issues as representative of the entire KKR platform.
Watch for:
KKR used $317 million to repurchase or retire 3.5 million shares through May 1 at an average price of $91.08. It also increased its repurchase authorization by another $500 million.
The stock traded well below its 2025 year-end level for much of Q2, making additional repurchases plausible.
However, KKR disclosed that awards representing approximately 21 million shares vested after March 31 and would enter adjusted shares beginning in Q2. That is roughly a 2.3% potential increase relative to Q1’s adjusted share count before considering repurchases and other changes.
Investors should therefore distinguish between:
A declining or broadly stable adjusted share count despite the scheduled vesting would be a positive capital-allocation signal.
The Q2 headline EPS number is only one part of the setup. The more important test is whether KKR can preserve roughly 20% recurring earnings growth while rebuilding confidence in monetization timing.
The most constructive outcome would be a quarter showing durable fee growth, healthy organic fee-paying AUM, stronger realization visibility and disciplined buybacks. Conversely, an EPS beat driven mainly by carried interest—paired with weaker fundraising, insurance economics or forward guidance—would be lower quality and may not resolve the market’s concerns.