Company | KLA Corporation |
Ticker | KLAC (NASDAQ) |
Reporting Period | Q4 FY2026 (quarter ending June 30, 2026) |
Earnings Date | July 28, 2026 (after market close) |
Last Earnings Date | April 29, 2026 (Q3 FY2026) |
Prepared | July 28, 2026 |
Key Takeaway: The setup favors a beat — consensus sits below guidance midpoint on revenue and EPS, estimates have risen modestly since the April print, and every major peer (ASML, AMAT, LRCX) has confirmed an accelerating WFE environment. The biggest swing factor is whether management raises the FY2026 WFE outlook above $140B+ and provides incremental 2027 color.
Heading into Q4 FY2026, KLA's bar looks achievable: consensus revenue of ~$3.61B sits at the low end of the $3.575B ± $200M guidance range, and non-GAAP EPS consensus of ~$9.91 is modestly below the $9.87 ± $1.00 midpoint, leaving room for the company's typical beat pattern. Management's tone has been unambiguously bullish since the April 29 print — CFO Bren Higgins stated at the May JPMorgan conference that WFE likely has "further upside" beyond $140B and that 2027 visibility is "remarkable," and reiterated at the June BofA conference that 2026 WFE could reach ~20% growth. Estimate revisions have tracked guidance directionally, with Q4 FY2026 revenue consensus up ~$15M and EPS up ~$0.20 since the post-earnings baseline, though the gap between consensus and the guidance midpoint still represents a modest cushion. The stock surged ~66% from the April 29 close to its June 30 peak of $301.71 before pulling back sharply to ~$203 on AI-fatigue sentiment and the CXMT IPO-driven chip selloff, meaning the stock has already given back much of its post-earnings premium and now trades at a more reasonable ~40x NTM P/E versus the ~48x peak. The key wildcard is the magnitude of the 2027 WFE directional raise — if management quantifies 2027 growth as materially above 2026's ~20%, the stock could re-rate sharply higher despite the recent selloff in semis.
Key Takeaway: Consensus sits at or slightly below the guidance midpoint on all key metrics, making the bar achievable. Revenue and non-GAAP EPS are the primary swing factors; gross margin is the secondary watch item given the persistent DRAM chip cost headwind (~100 bps) and tariff drag.
KPI | Q3 FY2026 Actual (Mar Qtr) | Q4 FY2025 Actual (Jun Qtr PY) | Q4 FY2026 Consensus Estimate | YoY Change | Guidance (Midpoint) | Consensus vs. Guidance (%) |
Total Revenue | $3,415M | $3,175M | $3,610M ¹ | +13.7% | $3,575M | +1.0% |
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS | $9.40 | $9.38 | $9.91 ¹ | +5.7% | $9.87 | +0.4% |
Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 62.2% | 63.2% | ~61.8% (implied) ¹ | -140 bps | 61.75% | +5 bps |
SPC Revenue (Semiconductor Process Control) | $3,084M | $2,878M | $3,279M ¹ | +13.9% | N/A (not separately guided) | N/A |
SPC Systems Revenue | $2,401M | $2,264M | $2,538M ¹ | +12.1% | N/A | N/A |
SPC Service Revenue | $778M | $614M | $708M ¹ | +15.3% | N/A | N/A |
¹ Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data
Note: Q4 FY2026 guidance was provided on the April 29, 2026 Q3 FY2026 earnings call. Revenue guidance midpoint is $3,575M (±$200M); Non-GAAP EPS guidance midpoint is $9.87 (±$1.00); Gross margin guidance is 61.75% (±100 bps). Foundry/logic is guided at ~82% of SPC systems revenue; memory at ~18% (DRAM ~84%, NAND ~16% within memory).
Quarter | Reported Revenue | Consensus Revenue | Revenue Surprise % | Reported Non-GAAP EPS | Consensus Non-GAAP EPS | EPS Surprise % | Result |
Q3 FY2026 (Mar 2026) | $3,415M | $3,376M ¹ | +1.2% | $9.40 | $9.15 ¹ | +2.7% | Beat / Beat |
Q2 FY2026 (Dec 2025) | $3,297M | $3,253M ¹ | +1.4% | $8.85 | $8.81 ¹ | +0.5% | Beat / Beat |
Q1 FY2026 (Sep 2025) | $3,210M | $3,176M ¹ | +1.1% | $8.81 | $8.65 ¹ | +1.9% | Beat / Beat |
Q4 FY2025 (Jun 2025) | $3,175M | $3,082M ¹ | +3.0% | $9.38 | $8.53 ¹ | +10.0% | Beat / Beat |
Q3 FY2025 (Mar 2025) | $3,063M | $3,009M ¹ | +1.8% | $8.41 | $8.08 ¹ | +4.1% | Beat / Beat |
Q2 FY2025 (Dec 2024) | $3,077M | $2,945M ¹ | +4.5% | $8.20 | $7.75 ¹ | +5.8% | Beat / Beat |
Q1 FY2025 (Sep 2024) | $2,842M | $2,755M ¹ | +3.2% | $7.33 | $7.04 ¹ | +4.1% | Beat / Beat |
Q4 FY2024 (Jun 2024) | $2,569M | $2,525M ¹ | +1.7% | $6.60 | $6.15 ¹ | +7.3% | Beat / Beat |
¹ Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data
Pattern: KLA has beaten both revenue and non-GAAP EPS consensus in each of the last 8 consecutive quarters, with EPS beats ranging from +0.5% to +10.0% and revenue beats ranging from +1.1% to +4.5%. The consistency of the beat pattern, combined with guidance that has been set conservatively, supports a high-probability beat scenario heading into Q4 FY2026.
Key Takeaway: Guidance has not been formally revised since the April 29 earnings call, but management's tone has shifted incrementally more bullish at every post-earnings conference appearance — WFE is now tracking toward ~20% growth (above the $140B+ stated at earnings), and 2027 visibility is described as "remarkable." No formal pre-announcement or 8-K guidance update has been issued.
Metric | Initial Guidance (Apr 29, 2026 Earnings Call) | Revised Guidance | Current Consensus | Note |
Q4 FY2026 Revenue | $3,575M ± $200M | — | $3,610M ¹ | No formal revision; consensus sits +1.0% above midpoint |
Q4 FY2026 Non-GAAP EPS | $9.87 ± $1.00 | — | $9.91 ¹ | No formal revision; consensus +0.4% above midpoint |
Q4 FY2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin | 61.75% ± 100 bps | — | ~61.8% (implied) ¹ | DRAM chip cost headwind confirmed at ~100 bps; tariff headwind at mid-to-high end of 50–100 bps range but expected to moderate |
FY2026 Revenue Growth | High-teens YoY; SPC Systems >20% | ↑ Incrementally more bullish; CFO indicated ~20% WFE growth at Jun BofA conference | $13,532M ¹ | ↑ Tone raised at May JPMorgan (May 19) and Jun BofA (Jun 3) conferences; WFE now tracking toward ~20% growth vs. $140B+ at earnings |
FY2026 WFE Market | >$140B (incl. advanced packaging) | ↑ CFO: "might be a little bit stronger" at Jun BofA; "likely upside" at May JPMorgan | N/A (not a VA KPI) | ↑ Raised incrementally at both post-earnings conferences; no formal 8-K update |
Advanced Packaging Revenue (2026) | ~$1B (SPC process control) | — | N/A | Confirmed at May JPMorgan; up from $635M in 2025; ~57% growth rate |
2027 WFE Growth | Growth rate to exceed 2026 growth rate | ↑ CFO: "at least as fast" and "similar or better" at Jun BofA; "higher than 2026" at May JPMorgan | N/A | ↑ Confidence building; greenfield fab construction schedules driving unprecedented visibility |
¹ Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data
Key Takeaway: Estimates have moved up modestly since the April 29 post-earnings baseline, tracking management's incrementally bullish tone. The gap between consensus and guidance midpoint is narrow (within 1%), suggesting the street has largely absorbed the raised WFE outlook but has not yet fully priced in the potential for a further raise on the Q4 call. FY2027 estimates have risen more meaningfully (+1.9% on EPS), reflecting growing conviction in the multi-year WFE upcycle.
KPI (Period) | Estimate ~May 6, 2026 (Post-Earnings Baseline) | Current Consensus | Estimate Δ (%) | Initial Guidance (Apr 29 Call) | Current Guidance | Guidance Δ | Consensus vs. Guidance (%) |
Revenue — Q4 FY2026 | $3,596M ¹ | $3,610M ¹ | +0.4% | $3,575M midpoint | Unchanged | — | +1.0% |
Non-GAAP EPS — Q4 FY2026 | $9.96 ¹ | $9.91 ¹ | -0.5% | $9.87 midpoint | Unchanged | — | +0.4% |
Revenue — FY2026 | $13,518M ¹ | $13,532M ¹ | +0.1% | High-teens YoY growth | Tone raised; ~20% WFE growth | ↑ Incrementally bullish | N/A |
Non-GAAP EPS — FY2026 | $37.02 ¹ | $36.97 ¹ | -0.1% | N/A (FY not explicitly guided) | N/A | — | N/A |
Revenue — FY2027 | $17,152M ¹ | $17,363M ¹ | +1.2% | WFE growth to exceed 2026 rate | Tone raised; "at least as fast" or better | ↑ Incrementally bullish | N/A |
Non-GAAP EPS — FY2027 | $50.43 ¹ | $49.42 ¹ | -2.0% | N/A | N/A | — | N/A |
¹ Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Post-earnings baseline uses consensus as of approximately May 6, 2026 (5 trading days after April 29 earnings).
Estimates are broadly stable since the post-earnings baseline, with FY2027 revenue estimates rising +1.2% as the street builds in more conviction on the multi-year WFE upcycle. The slight EPS drift lower on FY2027 likely reflects modest margin conservatism. The narrow gap between current consensus and Q4 guidance midpoints (+1.0% on revenue, +0.4% on EPS) suggests the bar is achievable but not stretched — any incremental raise to FY2026 or 2027 WFE commentary would be the primary upside catalyst.
Key Takeaway: KLAC surged ~66% from the April 29 earnings close to its June 30 peak of $301.71, driven by multiple expansion and bullish 2027 WFE commentary, before giving back nearly all of those gains on AI-fatigue sentiment and the CXMT IPO-driven chip selloff. The stock now trades at ~$203, roughly flat to the post-earnings close, meaning the market has effectively reset expectations — a clean setup for a re-rating if Q4 results and guidance impress.
Chart: KLAC vs. SOXX (iShares Semiconductor ETF) vs. S&P 500 (SPY) — Indexed to 100 at April 29, 2026 (Last Earnings Date)
Date | KLAC (Indexed) | SOXX (Indexed) | SPY (Indexed) |
Apr 29, 2026 (Earnings) | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
May 19, 2026 (JPMorgan Conf.) | 95.8 | 110.4 | 103.1 |
Jun 3, 2026 (BofA Conf. / Stock Split Ann.) | 116.9 | 136.8 | 106.0 |
Jun 11, 2026 (10-for-1 Split Effective) | 132.8 | 130.4 | 103.7 |
Jun 30, 2026 (Peak) | 166.1 | 142.4 | 104.9 |
Jul 15, 2026 (ASML Earnings) | 123.6 | 123.4 | 106.1 |
Jul 27, 2026 (CXMT IPO / AI Selloff) | 112.0 | 114.7 | 103.9 |
Jul 28, 2026 (Today / Earnings Day) | 111.9 | 114.7 | 103.9 |
Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance). Indexed to 100 at April 29, 2026 close. SOXX = iShares Semiconductor ETF (appropriate sub-sector benchmark for semiconductor capital equipment). SPY = SPDR S&P 500 ETF.
Key Events Since Last Earnings:
Performance Summary: KLAC is up ~+11.9% since the April 29 earnings close vs. SOXX +14.7% and SPY +3.9%. The stock significantly outperformed both benchmarks through the June 30 peak (+66% vs. SOXX +42% and SPY +5%), but the subsequent selloff has left KLAC modestly underperforming SOXX since earnings. The 1-month performance of -21.4% (per the stock performance decomposition data) reflects multiple compression from ~38.5x to ~32.6x NTM EV/EBITDA, driven primarily by the AI-fatigue sentiment shift rather than any fundamental deterioration.
Key Takeaway: The most important development since last earnings is the 10-for-1 stock split (effective June 12) and the continued bullish management commentary at two major conferences, which reinforced the WFE upcycle thesis. The July chip selloff driven by CXMT's IPO and AI-fatigue sentiment is the primary near-term headwind, but has no fundamental read-through to KLA's business.
Key Takeaway: Every major peer that has reported or commented in the last 60 days has confirmed an accelerating WFE environment, with ASML's Q2 2026 earnings raise being the single most important read-through. AMAT, LRCX, and TER all provided bullish forward commentary at the June BofA conference. The consistent message across peers is: AI-driven demand is broadening (logic + DRAM + advanced packaging), 2027 is shaping up as another strong growth year, and process control intensity is rising at advanced nodes — all directly favorable for KLA.
Note: Only commentary from the trailing 60 days (May 28 – July 28, 2026) that speaks to the peer's current reporting period or forward outlook is included below. Retrospective commentary about previously reported quarters is excluded.
ASML is the most important peer read-through for KLA given its role as the primary lithography equipment supplier and its direct visibility into customer capex plans. ASML's Q2 2026 results and guidance raise are the strongest confirmation of the WFE upcycle thesis.
Theme | ASML Commentary (Jul 15, 2026) | KLA Read-Through |
Full-Year 2026 Guidance Raise | Raised 2026 net sales guidance to €43–45B (from €36–40B); gross margin raised to 54–56% (from 51–53%). "Continuous, very strong demand from our customers." | Strongly positive. Confirms WFE market well above $140B. KLA's process control tools are sold alongside ASML's lithography systems. |
Q3 2026 Guidance | Q3 net sales guided €11–12B; gross margin 55–57%. "Driven by continued strong demand." | Positive. Sustained demand into Q3 supports KLA's Q4 FY2026 (Jun quarter) revenue trajectory. |
Logic / Foundry | "Continued investment not only to enable the expansion of 3nm capacity... but also at 5nm and 4nm to support a diverse set of chips required by AI products." 2nm ramping rapidly; customers planning 1.4nm investments. Advanced logic foundry net system sales to grow >25% in 2026. | Positive. Multi-node investment breadth increases process control intensity across KLA's inspection and metrology portfolio. |
DRAM / HBM | "Supply challenges driving up both DDR and HBM prices have prompted significant investments in fab expansion." Memory net system sales to grow >75% in 2026. Multiple mega-fab plans confirmed. | Strongly positive. HBM is KLA's highest process control intensity segment. Mega-fab construction directly drives KLA's 2027 backlog. |
Process Control Intensity | "Greater process control intensity at advanced nodes has led to major traction when it comes to adoption of our optical and metrology products across all key customers." Non-EUV net system sales to grow ~25% in 2026. | Direct positive read-through. ASML explicitly confirms rising process control intensity — KLA's core thesis. |
2027 & 2028 Capacity Plans | "Close to being fully covered with orders for low-NA EUV" for 2027; planning 30% capacity increase. Investigating further 30% increase for 2028. Backlog "continues to increase with a broad mix of customers for 2027." | Strongly positive. Multi-year order visibility directly supports KLA's 2027 WFE growth thesis and greenfield fab construction schedules. |
China | China expected to be ~20% of full-year 2026 net sales, "increasing in line with the overall business, mainly related to increased demand in mainstream logic." | Neutral. China stable at ~20% for ASML; KLA's China exposure is similarly manageable and contemplated in guidance. |
AMAT provided two significant forward-looking data points in the last 60 days: bullish WFE commentary at the BofA conference and a detailed DRAM/advanced packaging investor event on June 25.
Theme | AMAT Commentary (Jun 2 & Jun 25, 2026) | KLA Read-Through |
WFE Demand & Semiconductor Systems Growth | Raised semiconductor systems forecast to ">30% growth" for 2026. Services growth raised to "mid-teens" ("a little bit higher" this year). "Wafer start output is growing at the strongest rate it ever has for DRAM, for leading-edge logic." AI driving semiconductor industry to ~$1 trillion in annual sales in 2026. | Strongly positive. >30% systems growth for AMAT implies robust WFE demand broadly, directly supporting KLA's high-teens revenue growth target. |
DRAM / HBM Inflections | DRAM WFE spending expected to be "well over 2x NAND spending" for the foreseeable future. HBM growing rapidly, expanding AMAT's advanced packaging business by >50%. Trade ratio for HBM DRAM moving from 3:1 to 4:1 with newer HBM generations. Expects 300,000–400,000 wafer starts of added DRAM capacity per year. | Strongly positive. Higher HBM trade ratios and DRAM capacity additions directly drive KLA's process control intensity in memory. |
Advanced Packaging Process Control | "Packaging fabs increasingly need the same advanced process control technologies found in wafer fabs." Introduced two new E-beam process control tools for advanced packaging (Verity SM7 AP, SEM Vision G7 AP) — "already in production at multiple leading advanced packaging customers in both memory and logic." | Direct positive read-through. AMAT's own entry into advanced packaging process control validates the market opportunity and confirms KLA's #1 position is in a growing, contested market. |
Advanced Packaging Revenue | AMAT advanced packaging revenue to grow ">50% to >$2B" in 2026. Panel interposer substrates transitioning from wafer to panel form factor; equipment selections happening now for high-volume production in 2–3 years. | Positive. Confirms the advanced packaging market is growing rapidly; KLA's $1B advanced packaging target is well-supported by the broader market trajectory. |
China | China at ~24% of semi systems and services in most recent quarter; expected to be "a little bit smaller as we get out a few quarters" but long-term run rate ~30% of global semi device demand. | Neutral. China stable for AMAT; consistent with KLA's expectation of China growing at a slower rate than overall WFE. |
LRCX CFO Douglas Bettinger provided detailed forward-looking commentary on WFE demand, supply constraints, and 2027 expectations.
Theme | LRCX Commentary (Jun 2, 2026) | KLA Read-Through |
WFE Demand & 2026 Outlook | Updated WFE forecast to "$140, perhaps with a bias to a little bit of upside" (from $135 at start of year). Growth driven "across all segments." "The industry is undersupplied right now" — constraints in memory pricing, advanced foundry, and advanced packaging ("super tight"). | Positive. Confirms WFE at $140B+ with upside bias; undersupply across segments supports KLA's Q4 FY2026 revenue trajectory. |
2027 Outlook | "I think '27 is going to be a pretty good growth year, again, because we're constrained this year, all of the unmet demand will roll into next year." "Clean rooms will become more available." "The robustness of these conversations is as strong as I've ever seen it, frankly, in all the time I've been in the industry." | Strongly positive. LRCX CFO's conviction on 2027 is the strongest peer confirmation of KLA's 2027 WFE growth thesis. |
AI Capex & Advanced Nodes | "It's AI" as the primary growth driver. AI accelerator chips are "very, very big die" at "pretty advanced process nodes" requiring "the most advanced equipment." "The longevity of this to me feels like it's here for quite a good amount of time." | Positive. Large die size is a unique KLA benefit (more defects per wafer at same defect density), directly supporting process control intensity. |
HBM / DRAM | "DRAM is getting the priority" for clean room allocation due to higher profitability vs. NAND. HBM stack growth (8 to 12 to 16 die) means "the need for equipment grows." Lam "owns the TSV" and does "most of the TSV for everybody in the industry." | Positive. DRAM prioritization and HBM stack complexity growth directly drive KLA's memory process control intensity. |
Advanced Packaging | Advanced packaging is "super tight." Lam owns HBM, CoWoS, Foveros TSV steps. Building second manufacturing facility in Malaysia to ensure Lam is "not going to be the constraining item in the industry." | Positive. "Super tight" advanced packaging confirms KLA's $1B advanced packaging revenue target is well-supported by demand. |
Teradyne CEO Gregory Smith provided forward-looking commentary on the semiconductor test equipment market and AI-driven demand waves.
Theme | TER Commentary (Jun 2, 2026) | KLA Read-Through |
WFE Market Size & Test TAM | WFE "well on its way to $200 billion." Current year WFE expected at "$140–$145 billion." ATE TAM could reach $20B if WFE reaches $250B. "More wafers means more test." | Positive. WFE at $140–145B confirms KLA's market backdrop; more wafer output also drives more process control demand. |
Advanced Packaging Test Intensity | "The cost of having a failure downstream is so high that you're willing to invest to get to a higher level of test quality upstream" for AI accelerators (2 compute die + 6 HBM stacks + CoWoS interposer). HBM test intensity "much higher because of the stacking and the quality requirements downstream." | Positive. High cost of downstream failure in advanced packages drives upstream process control investment — directly supports KLA's advanced packaging thesis. |
AI Demand Waves | Wave 1 (through 2026): General-purpose data centers. Wave 2 (2026–2030): Inference at scale, CPU renaissance, specialized inference silicon. Wave 3 (after 2030): Edge AI, autonomous driving, physical AI/robotics. "The semiconductor capital equipment market... is well on its way to $200 billion." | Positive. Multi-wave AI demand framework supports KLA's long-term WFE growth thesis and 2030 revenue target of ~$26B. |
Source: Insider Transaction Data (SEC Form 4 Filings). All share counts are post-split adjusted (10-for-1 split effective June 12, 2026).
Assessment: The insider transaction picture is benign. Five of the seven transactions are pre-scheduled 10b5-1 planned sales — routine and obligation-driven. The two discretionary sales (Kirloskar 297 shares, Hanley 550 shares) are very small in dollar terms (~$52K and ~$96K respectively) and occurred in May when the stock was trading near $175 (post-split). No open-market buys have been filed since the April 29 earnings call. The CEO's recurring 10b5-1 sales (~4,512 shares per month) are consistent with a long-standing plan and carry no negative signal. Overall, nothing stands out as a meaningful insider signal in either direction.