Report Date: Tuesday, July 28, 2026, before market open | Call: 8:30 AM ET
Wall Street is looking for a solid but decelerating quarter relative to Q1. Wall Street analysts expect adjusted earnings of 93 cents a share on revenue of $13.2 billion, representing 6.9% and 4.4% growth, respectively, from a year earlier. A separate read from the sell-side put it similarly: The Street was looking for organic growth of approximately 3.5% overall with EPS of 93 cents for Q2.
That would mark a step down from Q1's pace, where Coca-Cola's adjusted earnings rose 18% to 86 cents a share, while revenue climbed 12% to $12.5 billion, both topping expectations — though Q1 was flattered by six extra days in the quarter and easy comparisons.
Stock performance: KO shares closed at $84.09 on July 27, near all-time highs. Coca-Cola shares are up nearly 20% this year, outperforming many packaged food and beverage companies. The stock has notably decoupled from PepsiCo, whose shares have fallen nearly 30% since its 2023 highs, driven by margin and portfolio-mix concerns (more below).
Coca-Cola's Q1 was strong across nearly every metric: Global unit case volume grew 3%, net revenues grew 12%, organic revenues grew 10%, and comparable EPS grew 18% to $0.86, with comparable operating margin at 34.5% versus 33.8% in the prior year. Management raised full-year EPS guidance largely on tax-rate relief.
Current full-year 2026 guidance (reaffirmed/updated in Q1): - Organic revenue growth: 4%–5% (no change) - Comparable currency-neutral EPS ex-A&D: 6%–7% - Comparable EPS growth: 8%–9% vs. $3.00 in 2025 (raised from 7%–8%, driven by a lower 19.9% underlying tax rate) - FX: ~1–2 point tailwind to revenue; ~3 point tailwind to EPS - Divestitures (mainly the pending Coca-Cola Beverages Africa sale): ~4-point headwind to revenue, ~1-point headwind to EPS, assumed to close in H2 2026 - Free cash flow: ~$12.2 billion
For Q2 specifically, management guided to an approximate 1% currency tailwind to comparable net revenues and an approximate 1% headwind from acquisitions and divestitures, while comparable EPS growth is expected to include an approximate 3% currency tailwind and an approximate 1% headwind from acquisitions and divestitures. They also flagged that concentrate shipments were expected to lag unit cases by a couple of points during the second quarter — a reversal of the Q1 dynamic — so watch for revenue growth to look more muted than underlying consumer demand.
CFO John Murphy has repeatedly emphasized a more balanced top-line algorithm this year rather than price-led growth. In Q1, that meant 3% volume, 2% mix growth, with management guiding that for the full year, our guidance... we remain very much focused on delivering that balanced algorithm, floating scenarios like 3.2%, 2.5%, 2.5%, 2.3% splits across volume and price/mix. Investors will want to see whether Q2 volume held up amid a pressured consumer, especially in North America where mini-cans and affordability packs have been a key lever (In North America, mini-can volume grew by a high-single-digits percentage in the first quarter following the launch of single‑serve mini‑cans in convenience stores).
The most significant incremental issue since Q1 is the July cyberattack on Fairlife. Coca-Cola disclosed that its Fairlife dairy subsidiary was hit by ransomware, with production systems affected and U.S. production operations temporarily suspended, while operations in Canada remain unaffected. Fairlife is a major brand for Coca-Cola with an estimated $4 billion in sales by 2024. The company has since said Fairlife has resumed the majority of production at its four U.S. facilities, but the timing (mid-July) means the operational disruption falls mostly in Q3, not Q2. Still, expect questions on the call about the financial impact. Notably, the Fairlife ransomware attack may hurt third- and fourth-quarter results because Coca-Cola suspended production, but the business should recover by the first half of 2027, per Bank of America — so guidance commentary on H2 will be closely parsed.
The Middle East conflict is creating real friction. In Q1, management noted that Eurasia/Middle East grew volume actually in the quarter and March was the month that got more impacted by the conflict. More acutely, the conflict is now hitting supply chains: Coca-Cola has raised prices of Diet Coke in India by more than 10% due to ongoing Middle East conflict disrupting its supply chain for aluminum cans, forcing the company to procure pricier, larger-sized cans from Southeast Asia after the Strait of Hormuz, a critical supply route for aluminum cans and related raw materials to India, has virtually closed with commercial traffic heavily disrupted. This is a live risk factor management flagged as capable of changing the outlook — worth monitoring for read-through to other markets' input costs.
Investors should also note governance/operating changes: Coca-Cola announced in June that Jennifer Mann will step down from her role as EVP and President, North America Operating Unit effective Aug. 1, at which time John Murphy, President and Chief Financial Officer, will assume responsibility for the North America Operating Unit on an interim basis. With CFO Murphy now dual-hatting the company's largest and most profitable segment right as the Fairlife disruption and World Cup activation play out, expect questions about capacity, succession timeline, and continuity of financial messaging.
Q1's ~30bp gross margin decline (masking a 70bp comparable operating margin gain) was driven largely by a one-off APAC inventory phasing item and tea/coffee commodity pressure — management called this "anomalous" and expects it to normalize. Also relevant: management guided that margin expansion should improve in H2 once the CCBA divestiture closes, since removing a lower-margin bottling business mechanically lifts consolidated margins. Watch for updated timing on CCBA regulatory approval.
KO's premium positioning has been reinforced by contrast with PepsiCo's struggles. Coca-Cola reported a 35% operating margin in the first quarter, up from around 33% for the same period last year. Meanwhile, Pepsi's operating margin for the first two quarters of the year has hovered around 16.5%, less than half of Coke's. Analysts attribute this to structural differences: while Coke franchised most of its bottlers, Pepsi still owns about 80% of its bottlers, creating higher overhead, and Pepsi's skew to packaged food and snacks has been a big issue, whereas Coke is almost entirely beverage-focused, a business mix the market continues to reward with a valuation premium.
Management has been building World Cup activations since Q1 with bottlers in the U.S., Canada and Mexico. Investors may also want to hear whether the World Cup, held in the United States, Canada, and Mexico this summer, has helped drive higher sales at Coca-Cola, given Coca-Cola is an official sponsor of the FIFA World Cup... it serves as the tournament's official soft drink.
Coca-Cola enters this print from a position of strength — share gains, volume growth across every region, and a valuation premium widening versus Pepsi. The bar is high (93 cents EPS, ~4.4% revenue growth) after an 18%-EPS-growth Q1. The report should be less about the print itself (which looks achievable) and more about guidance commentary: how management frames the Fairlife disruption's H2 impact, whether the "balanced algorithm" of volume and price/mix is holding amid Middle East-driven cost/supply pressure, and any update on the CCBA divestiture timeline and North America leadership succession. A miss or full-year guidance cut — rather than a modest beat — is the bigger swing factor for a stock trading near highs.