I'll research L3Harris Technologies (LHX) to build a comprehensive earnings preview. Let me start by gathering recent filings, transcripts, and news.Let me read the most recent earnings materials and the guidance from prior quarters.Let me check the stock price performance and recent analyst/news context, plus the 2028 framework details from the Q4 call.Let me get the Q4 2025 call (which set 2026 guidance and the 2028 framework) and recent sector/macro news.Let me check for recent news on the AXYV IPO, HBTSS award, and Q2 consensus expectations.Let me pull the earnings-preview consensus numbers and the recent award details.Let me grab the year-ago Q2 2025 base numbers and confirm the recent Golden Dome award.I now have what I need. Here's the preview.
Fundamentally, LHX is firing on all cylinders. In Q1 2026 the company put up its best quarter in years — revenue of $5.7 billion, up 12%, and 15% organically, with GAAP diluted EPS of $2.72, up 33%, and a book-to-bill of 1.4x that lifted backlog to a new record $40.7 billion. Management also nudged up EPS guidance while explicitly flagging conservatism, with new CFO Ken Sharp telling analysts, "I do think there's a level of conservatism in there... I think you'll see us in July" as the moment to potentially raise numbers.
The stock, however, has round-tripped. LHX opened 2026 near $304, ran to ~$378 by early March, then bled down to a ~$278 low on July 21 before bouncing to ~$305 into the print — essentially flat YTD but ~20% off its highs. That underperformance is notable against RTX (up double digits over the same span). The reset likely reflects (a) a "sell-the-news" fatigue after a huge 2024–25 run, (b) sensitivity to the FY27 budget / reconciliation timing, and (c) the market wrestling with the complexity of the AXYV missile-IPO carve-out.
Net: expectations into the print are more balanced than they were in spring. A clean beat plus a guidance raise is arguably needed to re-rate the shares.
| Metric | Q2 2026 Consensus | Year-ago comp |
|---|---|---|
| EPS (GAAP diluted) | ~$2.79 | $2.44 GAAP / $2.78 non-GAAP (Q2'25) |
| Revenue | ~$5.5–5.6B | $5.43B (Q2'25) |
| FY26 EPS | ~$11.52 | $10.73 (2025) |
A subtle but important point: LHX switched to GAAP-only EPS guidance this year. On an apples-to-apples GAAP basis, year-ago Q2 was $2.44 — so the ~$2.79 estimate is roughly +14% YoY, not the "marginal" growth some headlines imply (they're comparing to the old $2.78 non-GAAP number). Watch how the Street frames the comp.
Current full-year guide to reaffirm or raise: full year revenue of $23 billion to $23.5 billion (7% organic growth at midpoint), segment operating margin of low 16%, GAAP EPS of $11.40 to $11.60, and free cash flow of $3 billion.
This is the swing factor for the stock. After a 15% organic Q1 and the CFO's July "check back with us" comment, a revenue and/or EPS raise is close to the base case. Two watch-items on the print: Q1 free cash flow was an outflow of $187 million, with management stressing cash is weighted to the back half — so Q2 FCF and the trajectory to the $3B target will be scrutinized. Also note Q1 benefited from extra working days; management sized that at a couple of percentage points, maybe ~$200 million in revenue, so a modest Q2 growth deceleration is normal, not a red flag.
Space & Mission Systems was the standout in Q1, with revenue of $3 billion, up 24%. Since then, the big catalyst Kubasik promised has landed: in mid-July, SDA awarded LHX the Accelerated Missile Defense Tranche 3 (AMDT3) deal — ~$955 million for 18 HBTSS-like missile-defense tracking satellites for Golden Dome (Sierra Space took a parallel ~$798M award; combined $1.75B). This effectively delivers the "HBTSS follow-on" win Kubasik teased on the Q1 call, where he said "we submitted a proposal for the follow-on to HBTSS. We would expect to win that here, hopefully, in a few months." Listen for how much of this converts to bookings/revenue in the quarter and how the classified pipeline (he cited a sole-source contract for $600 million with the potential for billions of dollars of follow-on) is trending.
Management is spinning its Missile Solutions segment into a separately traded company, now named AXYV, targeting an IPO in 2H26. Reporting since Q1 indicates AXYV has hired JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley and is targeting a raise of roughly $2 billion. Key structural facts to remember: the Department of War is the anchor investor, creating a $4 billion-plus revenue majority-owned public company with sustainable double-digit growth, funded by a $1 billion preferred security that converts at a 20% discount to the IPO price plus 3% detachable warrants, with the DoW holding a single-digit equity stake. Crucially for modeling: 2026 guidance and the 2028 framework still include Missile Solutions as it exists today; management will only update guidance when these transactions actually close — so expect an IPO/timing update but not yet a re-based guide.
Full-year segment targets set at the February framework: - Space & Mission Systems: revenue ~$11.5 billion, operating margin in the mid-10% range — running hot after +24% in Q1; watch for whether ISR (Compass Call, international missionized business jets) and Space keep outpacing. - Communications & Spectrum Dominance: revenue ~$8 billion, operating margin ~25%. CSD grew only 3% in Q1; the CFO said the business is expected to accelerate as the year progresses, so Q2 comms acceleration is a key credibility check. Tailwinds: strong international tactical-radio demand (Q1 booked $460M across three NATO members) and Marine Corps budget rising from $200M to a requested $750M. - Missile Solutions: revenue ~$4.4 billion, mid-12% margin, ~$620M EBITDA. Q1 grew 18% with margins up 110bps. The overhang: the $25 billion of Munitions Acceleration Council orders still in negotiation, with definitized contracts expected by year-end.
LHX enters the print with strong fundamental momentum (record backlog, 15% organic Q1, a fresh ~$955M Golden Dome tracking-satellite win) but a stock that has given back its 2026 gains and now trades roughly flat YTD. The bar is a guidance raise plus tangible AXYV IPO progress. The likely narrative: reaffirm-to-raise revenue/EPS, an update on the AXYV timeline and MAC contract definitization, and continued Space/Golden Dome momentum offsetting a still-soft-but-accelerating comms line. The setup skews constructive given the de-rated stock, but the two things that can disappoint are (1) a guide that's merely reaffirmed rather than raised after the CFO teased July, and (2) any push-out of the AXYV IPO or the $25B MAC orders.
Note: figures on FY27 budget, consensus estimates, and the AXYV IPO size/underwriters are drawn from third-party news and analyst previews and should be treated as directional, not company-confirmed.