Company | L3Harris Technologies, Inc. |
Ticker | LHX (NYSE) |
Reporting Period | Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026) |
Earnings Date | July 29, 2026 — After Market Close; Earnings Call 5:00 PM ET |
Prepared | July 28, 2026 |
Sector ETF Benchmark | ITA (iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF) |
Key Takeaway: The setup favors a beat on EPS and organic revenue growth, with consensus sitting below Q1's 15% organic print and management's own conservatism explicitly acknowledged; the single biggest swing factor is whether the Space & Mission Systems segment sustains its Q1 momentum or reverts toward the guided full-year high-single-digit rate.
Heading into Q2 2026, the bar for LHX looks achievable: consensus revenue of ~$5.83B implies roughly 7–8% organic growth, well below the 15% organic surge delivered in Q1, and management explicitly flagged conservatism in the full-year guide while maintaining it unchanged after the blowout first quarter. Guidance tone has been constructive but deliberately measured — the company raised EPS guidance by $0.10 at both ends to $11.40–$11.60 while holding revenue at $23B–$23.5B, signaling confidence in duration of growth rather than near-term pull-forward. Estimate revisions have been modestly positive since the April 30 print, with the 2Q26 EPS consensus ticking up from ~$2.77 to ~$2.80, consistent with the raised full-year EPS framework. The stock has underperformed ITA by roughly 15 percentage points since the Q1 earnings date (LHX down ~5% vs. ITA up ~12%), suggesting the market has not priced in a repeat beat and the risk/reward skews to the upside. The key wildcard is the HBTSS follow-on award — management guided for a mid-year decision, and any announcement on or around the print could materially re-rate the Space & Mission Systems segment and the stock.
Key Takeaway: Consensus sets a low bar on organic revenue growth (7–8% vs. Q1's 15%), making a beat likely; EPS is the more watched metric given the shift to GAAP-only reporting, and the $2.80 consensus implies modest sequential improvement from Q1's $2.72 actual.
KPI | Q1 2026 Actual | Q2 2025 Actual (Prior Year) | Q2 2026 Consensus Estimate | YoY Change (Est.) | FY2026 Guidance | Consensus vs. Guidance Midpoint |
Revenue ($B) | $5.744B | $5.426B | $5.825B | +7.4% | $23.0B–$23.5B | +0.5% vs. $23.25B midpoint annualized |
EPS — Diluted GAAP ($) | $2.72 | $2.44 | $2.80 | +14.8% | $11.40–$11.60 | ~$2.80 implies ~$11.50 FY run-rate; in-line with midpoint |
EBIT Margin (%) | 11.35% | 10.52% | 11.94% | +142 bps | Seg. Op. Margin: low 16% | N/A — different metric basis |
Organic Revenue Growth (%) | 15.0% | 6.0% | ~7.4% | +140 bps | ~7% at FY midpoint | In-line with FY guide |
Free Cash Flow ($B) | -$0.194B | $0.552B | $0.786B | +42.4% | ~$3.0B FY | Back-half weighted; Q2 est. implies recovery on track |
Backlog ($B) | $40.3B | $35.4B | $39.8B | +12.4% | N/A (no formal guidance) | N/A |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. All consensus figures as of July 28, 2026. Organic growth consensus derived from VA "Organic impact(%)" KPI. Segment operating margin guidance from Q1 2026 earnings release (April 30, 2026).
Quarter | Reported ($B) | Consensus ($B) | Surprise % | Result |
Q1 2026 | $5.744B | $5.414B | +6.1% | Beat |
Q4 2025 | $5.648B | $5.773B | -2.2% | Miss |
Q3 2025 | $5.659B | $5.528B | +2.4% | Beat |
Q2 2025 | $5.426B | $5.309B | +2.2% | Beat |
Q1 2025 | $5.132B | $5.218B | -1.6% | Miss |
Q4 2024 | $5.523B | $5.496B | +0.5% | Beat |
Q3 2024 | $5.292B | $5.292B | 0.0% | In-Line |
Q2 2024 | $5.341B* | N/A — pre-VA coverage | N/A | N/A |
Quarter | Reported ($) | Consensus ($) | Surprise % | Result |
Q1 2026 | $2.72 | $2.53 | +7.5% | Beat |
Q4 2025 | $1.59 | $2.53 | -37.2% | Miss (one-time items) |
Q3 2025 | $2.46 | $2.40 | +2.5% | Beat |
Q2 2025 | $2.44 | $2.24 | +8.9% | Beat |
Q1 2025 | $2.04 | $2.07 | -1.4% | Miss |
Q4 2024 | $2.38 | $2.27 | +4.8% | Beat |
Q3 2024 | $2.10 | $2.10 | 0.0% | In-Line |
Q2 2024 | N/A — pre-GAAP-only reporting | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. Note: Q4 2025 GAAP EPS miss reflects large one-time items (business divestiture-related losses and transaction costs); underlying operating performance was in-line. LHX shifted to GAAP-only reporting for segment operating income and EPS beginning in 2026, making direct pre-2026 comparisons on a like-for-like basis difficult. Pattern: LHX has beaten revenue consensus in 4 of the last 6 fully comparable quarters, with the Q1 2026 beat being the largest on record at +6.1%.
Key Takeaway: Guidance has been stable since the April 30 Q1 print — revenue held flat, EPS raised $0.10 at both ends — with no post-earnings 8-K or conference update changing the numbers; tone remains constructive with management explicitly flagging conservatism in the revenue guide.
Metric | Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Earnings Call, Apr 30) | Revised Guidance | Current Consensus | Note |
FY2026 Revenue | $23.0B – $23.5B (7% organic at midpoint) | — | $23.61B | Unchanged since Q1 print; CFO acknowledged "level of conservatism" given 15% Q1 organic beat; consensus sits above midpoint |
FY2026 GAAP Diluted EPS | $11.40 – $11.60 (raised $0.10 at both ends from prior $11.30–$11.50) | — | $11.59 | Raised at Q1 earnings; no further update; consensus near top of range |
FY2026 Segment Operating Margin | Low 16% | — | ~12.1% EBIT margin (VA); seg. margin not directly tracked in VA | Unchanged; Q1 seg. margin was 15.7%, tracking toward low-16% FY target |
FY2026 Free Cash Flow | ~$3.0B (back-half weighted; CapEx ~$600M) | — | $2.94B | Unchanged; Q1 FCF was -$194M (seasonal); consensus slightly below guidance |
FY2026 Organic Growth | ~7% at midpoint | — | ~8.8% | Consensus above guide midpoint, reflecting Q1 pull-forward; management maintained guide conservatively |
Missile Solutions IPO (AXYV) | Confidential S-1 filed Apr 29; DoW $1B investment closed; not in 2026 guidance | — | N/A | Management declined to discuss IPO process at Bernstein conference (May 2026); guidance will be updated when transactions close |
Key Takeaway: Estimates have been broadly stable-to-slightly-higher since the Q1 print, with Q2 EPS consensus up ~$0.03 and FY EPS near the top of guidance; the gap between consensus organic growth (~8.8% FY) and guidance midpoint (~7%) represents a cushion, not a risk, given management's stated conservatism.
KPI (Period) | Estimate ~5 Days Post Q1 Earnings (May 7, 2026) | Current Consensus (Jul 28, 2026) | Estimate Δ (%) | Initial Guidance (Q1 Call, Apr 30) | Current Guidance | Guidance Δ | Consensus vs. Guidance (%) |
Revenue — Q2 2026 | $5.782B | $5.825B | +0.7% | No Q2-specific guidance | No Q2-specific guidance | N/A | N/A |
Revenue — FY2026 | $23.619B | $23.606B | -0.1% | $23.0B–$23.5B | $23.0B–$23.5B (unchanged) | Unchanged | +1.5% above $23.25B midpoint |
EPS (Diluted GAAP) — Q2 2026 | $2.767 | $2.802 | +1.3% | No Q2-specific guidance | No Q2-specific guidance | N/A | N/A |
EPS (Diluted GAAP) — FY2026 | $11.605 | $11.594 | -0.1% | $11.40–$11.60 | $11.40–$11.60 (unchanged) | Unchanged | +0.8% above $11.50 midpoint; near top of range |
Organic Growth (%) — FY2026 | ~9.1% | ~8.8% | -0.3 pp | ~7% at midpoint | ~7% at midpoint (unchanged) | Unchanged | +180 bps above guide midpoint |
Free Cash Flow — FY2026 | $3.023B | $2.940B | -2.7% | ~$3.0B | ~$3.0B (unchanged) | Unchanged | -2.0% below guidance |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. May 7, 2026 baseline represents consensus approximately 5 trading days after the April 30, 2026 Q1 earnings release. Estimates have been remarkably stable since the Q1 print, with no material revision in either direction — a sign that the market is waiting for Q2 execution rather than pre-positioning. The slight FCF consensus shortfall vs. guidance reflects uncertainty around CapEx timing for the missile capacity build-out.
Key Takeaway: LHX has significantly underperformed ITA (+12%) and the S&P 500 (+3%) since the April 30 Q1 earnings date, declining ~5% despite a strong beat — driven almost entirely by multiple compression (EV/EBITDA contracted from ~16.9x to ~14.7x over 6 months) rather than estimate cuts, creating a more attractive entry point heading into Q2.
The chart below shows LHX, ITA (iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF), and SPY (S&P 500 ETF) indexed to 100 at the April 30, 2026 Q1 earnings date. Key events are marked with vertical dashed lines.
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LHX vs. ITA vs. SPY — Indexed to 100 at Q1 2026 Earnings (April 30, 2026). Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data.
Performance Summary (April 30 – July 29, 2026 close):
Security | Apr 30 Close | Jul 29 Close | Return |
LHX | $320.55 | $305.20 | -4.8% |
ITA (Aerospace & Defense ETF) | $218.56 | $244.98 | +12.1% |
SPY (S&P 500 ETF) | $718.66 | $740.86 | +3.1% |
Source: Yahoo Finance / Stock Price Data. LHX's underperformance vs. ITA is notable given the strong Q1 beat — the stock sold off on the day of the Q1 print (April 30) despite beating on both revenue and EPS, likely because investors focused on the maintained (rather than raised) revenue guidance. The subsequent ~17 percentage point gap vs. ITA reflects sector rotation into defense names with more direct missile/munitions exposure (LMT, RTX) and LHX-specific multiple compression. The NTM P/E has contracted from ~27.7x (6 months ago) to ~23.6x today, while EPS estimates are essentially flat — the entire drawdown is valuation-driven, not fundamental.
Key Events Since Q1 Earnings (April 30, 2026):
Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is the $25M Sustainment Award package for key executives (July 23), which signals the board's commitment to retaining leadership through the AXYV IPO and 2028 framework execution; the HBTSS award decision (guided for mid-year) remains the most significant pending catalyst.
Key Takeaway: Every major defense peer that has reported Q2 2026 results (RTX, NOC, LMT, BA) delivered a consistent message: demand for missiles, munitions, space, and secure communications is accelerating, budgets are rising, and margins are expanding — all directly positive for LHX's Q2 setup and full-year outlook.
Note: All commentary below is from Q2 2026 earnings calls (July 2026) and addresses forward-looking themes for H2 2026, FY2026, and beyond. Backward-looking commentary on already-reported quarters has been excluded.
Defense Demand & Budgets: RTX reported a record backlog of $289B (up 22% YoY, 6% sequentially) and raised its full-year outlook for adjusted sales, EPS, and FCF. Management cited "bipartisan support for a significant increase in 2027 defense spending" with the base budget request of $1.1T representing a ~25% YoY increase. Critically, five framework agreements signed earlier in 2026 are expected to generate "significant demand over the next ten years" and are "not even in our backlog today." LHX Read-Through: The same budget tailwinds and framework agreement structures apply directly to LHX's MAC program negotiations (~$25B not yet in backlog). RTX's commentary validates LHX management's conservatism in maintaining FY2026 guidance — the upside is real but not yet contracted.
Missiles & Munitions: Raytheon booked over $5B of GMT Patriot effectors (international), its first domestic GMT production order in over 30 years, $1.8B for AMRAAM, $1.1B for AIM-9X, and ~$800M for LTMS. RTX has "more than doubled year-over-year output across critical munitions through the first half of the year" and is investing an additional $100M to increase GMT component production. LHX Read-Through: LHX is a key supplier of components, fuzing, and guidance systems for Patriot, AMRAAM, and related platforms. RTX's doubling of output implies a corresponding ramp in LHX's Missile Solutions segment deliveries. The $100M GMT investment signals sustained multi-year demand for LHX's solid rocket motor and propulsion capabilities.
Supply Chain & Production Capacity: RTX emphasized that future growth "is going to be predicated on the supply chain" and is investing in "second and third sources in constrained areas" and engaging suppliers "outside the defense industrial base." Management noted that multi-year firm orders ("a seven-year firm order") are the "single biggest game changer" for supplier investment. LHX Read-Through: LHX's Q1 call highlighted the same dynamic — the company is targeting zero single-source suppliers in Missile Solutions by end of 2026 and is seeking downside protections in MAC negotiations. RTX's commentary validates LHX's supply chain investment thesis and suggests the industry-wide capacity build is on track.
Margins: Raytheon's defense mix is "pretty favorable" on mature programs, with international backlog (48%) helping drive "a little bit better pricing and productivity." RTX sees Raytheon margins "still in the mid-12% range" for the rest of the year with framework agreements as a "significant tailwind." LHX Read-Through: LHX's international revenue is targeted to grow from low-20s% to mid-20s% of total revenue — the same mix shift RTX is benefiting from. Margin tailwinds from international and mature program mix are directly applicable to LHX's Communications and Space segments.
Defense Budgets & International: NOC cited House and Senate Armed Services Committees each supporting $1.1T in the FY2027 base budget (up ~10% from FY2026), plus a $67B supplemental request and a $350B reconciliation package. International demand is at "unprecedented levels" with FMS cases being approved "at a much more rapid rate." LHX Read-Through: LHX's 2026 guidance has no dependence on reconciliation or supplemental funding — any conversion of these budget lines to contracts is pure upside. The faster FMS approval pace directly benefits LHX's international tactical communications and ISR businesses.
Missiles & Solid Rocket Motors: NOC completed qualification to become a PAC-3 SRM supplier and reached a $2B framework agreement with the DoW and Lockheed Martin, with initial production awards expected later in 2026. NOC has "ten multiyear agreements for missile acceleration" with "up to $10B of sales opportunity over the next seven years." Defense Systems segment expects H2 revenues to step up more than $700M driven by higher ammunition sales. LHX Read-Through: NOC entering the PAC-3 SRM market as a new supplier validates the scale of demand — the market is large enough to support multiple qualified suppliers. LHX's AXYV (Missile Solutions) is the incumbent SRM supplier for PAC-3 and benefits from this demand surge. NOC's $700M+ H2 step-up in Defense Systems is a direct positive read-through for LHX's Missile Solutions H2 trajectory.
Space: NOC's national security space business is projected to grow "high single digits" and generate over $7B in sales in 2026, driven by "space security, space resilience and missile defense." Golden Dome-related revenues "will continue to scale" with more selection decisions and contract actions expected through early 2027. LHX Read-Through: LHX's Space & Mission Systems segment is a direct competitor and partner in national security space. NOC's high-single-digit growth guidance for space validates LHX's own space segment growth trajectory. The pending HBTSS follow-on award (LHX is the incumbent) is part of the same Golden Dome architecture NOC references.
Margins: NOC is "confident in improved margin performance in the second half" driven by a shift in mix "away from mostly development to more production" — a shift that is "margin accretive." The company expects segment operating income to "improve in the second half." LHX Read-Through: LHX is on the same trajectory — the company's segment operating margin guidance of "low 16%" for FY2026 implies H2 margins above Q1's 15.7%. NOC's commentary validates that the development-to-production mix shift is a real and durable margin driver across the sector.
Overall Outlook: LMT raised 2026 guidance and cited "broad-based" acceleration, with "every segment at Lockheed Martin growing faster in the back half of 2026 on both the top and bottom lines." The revised outlook pegs H2 2026 growth "in the high single digits, and perhaps even the low double digits." LHX Read-Through: LMT's broad-based H2 acceleration is the strongest sector-level read-through for LHX's own H2 setup. If LMT — the largest defense prime — is seeing acceleration across all segments, LHX's maintained full-year guidance looks increasingly conservative.
Missiles & Munitions: LMT's Missiles and Fire Control (MFC) segment grew sales 19% and profit 24% YoY in Q2, with a $35B, 7-year contract to quadruple PAC-3 interceptor production and a $3B Army HIMARS production contract. LMT is investing $8–$9B in total capital for munitions scaling. Management noted the government's urgency: "Faster, faster, faster" is the message from the Deputy Secretary of Defense. LHX Read-Through: LMT's MFC is LHX's Missile Solutions segment's primary customer for PAC-3 SRMs and related components. A 19% revenue growth rate at MFC with a 7-year, $35B contract directly translates to multi-year demand visibility for LHX's AXYV business. The "faster, faster, faster" urgency validates LHX's aggressive capacity build (60 buildings committed, 30 under construction).
Contracting Model / Margins: LMT highlighted a critical shift in framework agreements: contractors now "keep in our own profitability" if they achieve efficiencies during production ramp-up, rather than being repriced down. This change "will motivate industry to just get better and faster." LMT is increasing its segment operating profit target to $8.5–$8.7B. LHX Read-Through: This contracting model change is directly applicable to LHX's MAC program negotiations. If LHX secures similar efficiency-retention provisions in its 5– and 7-year MAC deals, the margin upside from the Missile Solutions ramp could be significantly larger than current consensus implies.
Space: LMT was selected as a Golden Dome awardee to develop space-based interceptor prototypes, with capability demonstration expected by 2028. Space segment 2026 sales guided to $13.85–$14.05B, supported by "classified national security programs." LHX Read-Through: LHX's classified space revenue (~28% of total company revenue per Q1 disclosure) is growing YoY. LMT's Golden Dome award validates the scale of investment in space-based missile defense — LHX's HBTSS program is a key component of this architecture.
Defense Demand: Boeing's CFO noted that "the demand signal on our defense and space products remains very strong" with "notable increased demand in missiles and munitions and secure communications satellites." Government services business has seen "incremental demand to support ongoing operations." LHX Read-Through: Boeing's defense commentary is the most recent (same day as this preview) and directly validates LHX's end-market setup. "Secure communications satellites" is a direct reference to LHX's Space & Mission Systems segment. "Incremental demand to support ongoing operations" aligns with LHX's sustainment and ISR businesses.
Supply Chain: Boeing is "strengthening trust with our supply chain through increased transparency and strong demonstrated performance" and noted that scaling from 52 to 57 aircraft per month is "where we'll start to see more balance in our inventory levels, where the supply chain is going to need to be performing quite well." LHX Read-Through: LHX is a supplier to Boeing's defense programs (ISR missionization, avionics). Boeing's supply chain commentary suggests the broader defense supply chain is tightening at higher production rates — a potential constraint but also a pricing power opportunity for LHX as a qualified supplier.
Key Takeaway: The only open-market insider transaction since Q1 earnings was a small 10b5-1 planned sale by the CHRO in May — routine and immaterial; the July 23 Sustainment Award grants (equity, not open-market transactions) are the more meaningful insider signal, reflecting the board's confidence in the 2027–2029 growth trajectory.
Name | Title | Transaction Type | Value | Filing Date | Transaction Date | Note |
Rakita, Melanie | Vice President & CHRO | 10b5-1 Planned Sale | ~$700K (2,180 shares) | May 5, 2026 | May 5, 2026 | Pre-planned 10b5-1 sale; routine; 4,192 shares remaining post-sale. No discretionary signal. |
Source: SEC Form 4 Filings Database. No open-market purchases or discretionary sales were filed by LHX insiders in the May 1 – July 28, 2026 window. The absence of discretionary selling by the CEO, CFO, or segment presidents heading into Q2 earnings is a mild positive signal. The July 23 Sustainment Award grants (PSUs/RSUs, not open-market transactions) are the most meaningful insider action — the board is locking in key executives through FY2029 with performance metrics tied directly to organic revenue growth and segment operating margin.
The following are the most important questions investors and analysts are likely to focus on during the July 29, 2026 earnings call at 5:00 PM ET: