LII Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
LII Report Q2 2026 Revenue BEAT pred ~$1.585B vs. cons ~$1.56B MEDIUM
LII Report Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$7.78 vs. cons ~$7.62 MEDIUM
LII Report HCS Segment Margin (Q2) BEAT pred ~24.0% vs. cons ~23.2% MEDIUM
LII Guide FY2026 Adjusted EPS Guidance BETTER guide ~$24.00-$25.00 (narrowed to upper half) vs. cons ~$24.30 midpoint (FY2026) MEDIUM
LII Guide FY2026 Revenue Growth Guidance UNCHANGED guide ~8% vs. cons ~8% (FY2026) MEDIUM
LII Guide FY2026 Cost Inflation Assumption BETTER guide ~3-3.5% (down from ~5% at Q1 on tariff relief) vs. cons ~5% prior assumption (FY2026) LOW
LII Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.8% MEDIUM
LII Return 5-day cumulative residual +0.4% (FADE) Beat plus tariff-driven cost relief is largely already known/priced (June 232 tariff cut, Carrier's Q2 beat-and-raise the day before), so the initial pop reflects confirmation rather than new information. With FY guidance reaffirmed rather than raised despite the favorable tariff shift, sell-side models likely already embed most of the good news; residual H2 uncertainty (new-construction drag, elevated non-tariff commodity costs, litigation overhang) plus a stock that ran up into the print (~5% pullback from highs but still near 52-week highs) sets up partial giveback over the week as short-term buyers take profits and estimate revisions normalize rather than extend. LOW