{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Revenue",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.585B vs. cons ~$1.56B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 2026 Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$7.78 vs. cons ~$7.62",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "HCS Segment Margin (Q2)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~24.0% vs. cons ~23.2%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EPS Guidance",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$24.00-$25.00 (narrowed to upper half) vs. cons ~$24.30 midpoint (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Revenue Growth Guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~8% vs. cons ~8% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Cost Inflation Assumption",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~3-3.5% (down from ~5% at Q1 on tariff relief) vs. cons ~5% prior assumption (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 1.8,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 0.4,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Beat plus tariff-driven cost relief is largely already known/priced (June 232 tariff cut, Carrier's Q2 beat-and-raise the day before), so the initial pop reflects confirmation rather than new information. With FY guidance reaffirmed rather than raised despite the favorable tariff shift, sell-side models likely already embed most of the good news; residual H2 uncertainty (new-construction drag, elevated non-tariff commodity costs, litigation overhang) plus a stock that ran up into the print (~5% pullback from highs but still near 52-week highs) sets up partial giveback over the week as short-term buyers take profits and estimate revisions normalize rather than extend.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}