Report date: Thursday, July 30, 2026 (after market close) | Call: Friday, July 31, 9:00 a.m. CT
Alliant Energy — the Madison, WI-based parent of Iowa's Interstate Power and Light (IPL) and Wisconsin Power and Light (WPL) — heads into Thursday's print riding one of the more compelling data-center growth stories in the regulated utility space, but also a stock that has pulled back roughly 8% from its 52-week high of $78.81 set in early July amid a broader rotation out of high-multiple utility names. Shares closed near $72 heading into the print, still up meaningfully year-to-date.
The Street's consensus calls for ongoing EPS of $0.66, which would represent a 2.9% year-over-year decline from the $0.68 the company earned in Q2 2025, on revenue of roughly $1.0 billion (+4.3% YoY). Consensus also models total electricity delivered up modestly (+0.9% YoY) to about 7,838 GWh. Zacks currently carries a negative Earnings ESP (-11.68%) and a Hold-equivalent Rank #3 on the stock heading into the quarter, meaning the setup doesn't conclusively point to a beat, though LNT matched estimates exactly last quarter ($0.82 vs. $0.82 expected) and has beaten in two of the last four quarters.
The expected year-over-year EPS decline is largely a function of financing costs (higher long-term debt from the ramping capital program) and depreciation outpacing revenue-requirement growth — a dynamic management has flagged consistently, alongside the fact that Q2 2025's ongoing EPS of $0.68 was itself up ~19% YoY, creating a tougher comp.
On the Q1 2026 call, first quarter ongoing earnings delivered approximately 25% of the midpoint of our full year guidance despite very mild temperatures across our service territory, and management said the company remain[s] firmly on track to achieve our 2026 earnings targets while executing on our strategic priorities. GAAP EPS was $0.87 and ongoing EPS was $0.82 (essentially flat vs. $0.83 a year ago), with temperatures in the first quarter of 2026 reduc[ing] electric and gas margins by approximately $0.04 per share compared to a reduction of $0.03 in the prior year. The company reaffirmed full-year 2026 ongoing EPS guidance of $3.36–$3.46 (vs. $3.22 actual in 2025, ~6.6% growth at the midpoint) and told investors based on our current plan, we expect our compound annual earnings growth rate across 2027 through 2029 to be 7% plus.
1. Data center pipeline update. This is the single biggest driver of the long-term thesis. As of Q1, IPL/WPL had 5 fully executed data center agreements representing approximately 3.4 gigawatts of contracted demand with 3 of these projects under active construction, following an April electric service agreement (ESA) for a new 370-megawatt electric service agreement with a hyperscale customer in Iowa with a full load ramp expected by the end of 2030. Management said it would be announcing that on a quarterly basis whenever a new ESA is signed, so investors will be watching for any incremental agreements toward the previously disclosed 2–4 GW of additional opportunity, though the full resource-plan refresh (including new generation sizing and updated EPS/growth trajectory) isn't due until the Q3 call and EEI conference.
2. Storm/O&M costs. Unlike the mild Q1, the second quarter included multiple significant weather events across the service territory — an April ice storm in Wisconsin and a notable mid-June severe weather event in Iowa/Wisconsin that knocked out power to tens of thousands of customers. Investors should watch whether elevated storm restoration and vegetation-management O&M offset any warm-weather sales tailwind, continuing the O&M cost pressure flagged in Q1 (higher operations and maintenance expenses related to new energy resources and planned maintenance at existing generating facilities as well as higher depreciation and financing costs).
3. Regulatory dockets and rate stability. Management has emphasized that in Iowa, our regulatory framework enables us to keep base electric rates stable through at least the end of the decade... while earning our authorized return through retaining tax credits and energy margins from new generation investments. Watch for updates on the 720 MW simple-cycle gas CT docket filed in Iowa (decision expected Q1 2027), the Wisconsin Beaver Dam/Meta data center individual rate case, the Riverside capacity expansion filing, and any commentary on Wisconsin's more contentious data-center political backdrop, which Barton addressed directly on the Q1 call (there's rhetoric that's out there that I think is spillover, quite frankly, from PJM).
4. MISO capacity accreditation. Management flagged that the Q3 resource-plan refresh will incorporate any incremental load beyond the 3 gigawatts already in our plan as well as the impact of updated MISO accreditation assumptions — any early commentary here matters for future capex sizing (batteries/peakers).
5. Financing execution and balance sheet. IPL's credit profile improved in Q1 when Standard & Poor's upgraded IPL's credit rating from BBB+ to A-, and the company has pre-funded much of its near-term equity need (approximately $1.3 billion through forward equity agreements against ~$2.4B of four-year needs). Watch for progress on the remaining ~$1B of equity (new $1B ATM program) and the ~$800M of planned 2026 long-term debt issuance at WPL/IPL, given the now-larger ~$13.4B four-year capex plan.
Sell-side sentiment has been broadly constructive but increasingly mixed on valuation. The stock carries a "Moderate Buy" consensus (roughly 7 Strong Buy, 1 Moderate Buy, 6 Hold among 14 analysts) with an average price target in the high-$70s to low-$80s. Recent action has included BMO Capital trimming its target to $80 from $83, while BofA nudged its target up to $78 from $77 and Wells Fargo reiterated a Buy; TD Cowen initiated coverage with a Hold and $83 target, and Mizuho and Scotiabank have both raised targets (to $76 and $74, respectively) while staying Neutral/Sector Perform. Some independent analysts have flagged the stock as fully valued after its run — one recent piece argued shares trade at roughly an 8% premium to fair value even while acknowledging the multi-year compounding story. Net, the setup into Thursday's print is a name priced for continued execution, not for disappointment.
Alliant's Q2 print is unlikely to be a fundamental inflection point — consensus already bakes in a modest YoY EPS decline tied to financing/depreciation drag and this quarter's storm activity. The report matters more for incremental data-center/ESA news flow, regulatory docket progress, and any directional commentary ahead of the Q3 resource-plan refresh and EEI update, where investors expect the company to lay out updated generation needs and a potentially higher long-term EPS growth algorithm (already guided to 7%+ CAGR for 2027–2029). Reaffirmation of the $3.36–$3.46 2026 guidance range would keep the story on track; any signal on accelerating the growth rate, additional signed load, or unexpected regulatory friction in Wisconsin would likely be the bigger swing factors for the stock.