LRCX Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
LRCX Report Revenue (FQ4/Jun-26) BEAT pred ~$6.78B vs. cons $6.67B MEDIUM
LRCX Report Non-GAAP EPS (FQ4/Jun-26) BEAT pred ~$1.73 vs. cons $1.69 MEDIUM
LRCX Report Non-GAAP Gross Margin (FQ4/Jun-26) IN-LINE pred ~50.7% vs. cons ~50.5% MEDIUM
LRCX Report CSBG / Services revenue (FQ4) BEAT pred ~$2.15B vs. cons ~$2.10B LOW
LRCX Guide Revenue guide (FQ1/Sep-26) BETTER guide ~$6.95B vs. cons ~$6.85B (Sep-26 qtr) LOW
LRCX Guide Non-GAAP EPS guide (FQ1/Sep-26) BETTER guide ~$1.78 vs. cons ~$1.74 (Sep-26 qtr) LOW
LRCX Guide Gross margin guide (FQ1/Sep-26) UNCHANGED guide ~50.5% vs. cons ~50.5% (Sep-26 qtr) MEDIUM
LRCX Guide 2026 WFE view BETTER guide ~$140B+ vs. cons ~$138B (CY2026) MEDIUM
LRCX Guide 2027 WFE / long-term model framing UNKNOWN guide qualitatively constructive (~growth yr) vs. cons cautious (CY2027) LOW
LRCX Guide China % of revenue trajectory LOWER guide China ~30% & declining vs. cons ~32% (Sep-26 qtr) MEDIUM
LRCX Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +3.5% LOW
LRCX Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.0% (FADE) A beat-and-raise into a ~38% drawdown likely sparks an oversold relief bounce day-1, but the out-period math works against durable follow-through: China guided down with down-payments at 4-yr lows and SK Hynix's ~47% rout keep memory-cycle fear alive, so implicit forward cuts and a broad AI/semis de-rating (AMAT/KLAC also cratering) drag the bounce back over the week unless a refreshed long-term model lands as a hard catalyst. LOW