LRCX Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
LRCX Report Q4 FY26 (June qtr) Revenue BEAT pred ~$6.85B vs. cons ~$6.75B MEDIUM
LRCX Report Q4 FY26 Non-GAAP EPS BEAT pred ~$1.74 vs. cons ~$1.70 MEDIUM
LRCX Report Q4 FY26 Non-GAAP Gross Margin BEAT pred ~50.9% vs. cons ~50.5% LOW
LRCX Guide FQ1 FY27 (Sept quarter) Revenue Guide BETTER guide ~$7.05B vs. cons ~$6.95B (Sept 2026 quarter) MEDIUM
LRCX Guide FQ1 FY27 (Sept quarter) Non-GAAP EPS Guide BETTER guide ~$1.80 vs. cons ~$1.75 (Sept 2026 quarter) MEDIUM
LRCX Guide CY2026 WFE Outlook Commentary BETTER guide ~$145B vs. prior/cons ~$140B (calendar year 2026) LOW
LRCX Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.0% MEDIUM
LRCX Return 5-day cumulative residual -1.0% (FADE) KLA's in-line print with a modestly-above-consensus guide still sold off >7% AH, and ASML's China-DUV scare has soured sector sentiment right into LRCX's print, so even a genuine beat-and-raise likely gets sold initially given the extreme bar. But unlike KLA/ASML, LRCX is already down ~38% from its June high on macro/sentiment (not fundamental) grounds, and underlying drivers (NAND conversion pull-forward, DRAM/HBM 1c-node content, WFE estimates trending up from MS/BofA) remain intact and arguably strengthening. That combination — stock already de-risked plus supportive out-quarter math (Sept-quarter guide likely above Street, WFE commentary likely raised) — should draw buy-the-dip flows and sell-side reiterations over the following days, causing the initial negative reaction to partially fade rather than extend into a deeper follow-through decline. LOW