| LYB |
Report |
EPS ex-items (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.35 vs. cons ~$1.15 |
MEDIUM |
| LYB |
Report |
EBITDA ex-items (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$1.45B vs. cons ~$1.25B |
MEDIUM |
| LYB |
Report |
O&P-Americas EBITDA (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$900M vs. cons ~$730M |
MEDIUM |
| LYB |
Guide |
PE price durability / H2 realization vs consultant fade |
BETTER |
guide ~flat-to-up PE (mgmt sees multi-qtr) vs. cons ~-$0.15-0.25/lb fade (2H26) |
MEDIUM |
| LYB |
Guide |
I&D operating rate / EBITDA recovery (Bayport restart) |
BETTER |
guide ~95-100% rates, EBITDA ~$375M vs. cons ~$300M (Q3'26) |
MEDIUM |
| LYB |
Guide |
Capital return / dividend restoration |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$0.22/qtr held (no restore/buyback) vs. cons hope ~$0.30 (2H26) |
MEDIUM |
| LYB |
Guide |
Free cash flow (intentional working-capital build) |
LOWER |
guide FCF ~$0.2B (WC build drag) vs. cons ~$0.6B (Q2'26) |
MEDIUM |
| LYB |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
+2.5% |
— |
LOW |
| LYB |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-1.5% (FADE) |
Q2 is a war-premium peak quarter; even on a clear EBITDA/EPS beat, the out-period math works against LYB. Sell-side (and CMA/consultants) model H2 PE/PP price erosion as the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, so a Q2 blowout drives modest day-1 upside but forward Q3/Q4/2027 estimates get trimmed as analysts fade the premium. Stock already round-tripped ($82->$53->$60, +7% into print), dividend stays cut and WC build caps FCF, so the initial pop gives back over 5 days as durability skepticism reasserts. |
LOW |