{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EBITDA",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.58B vs. cons $1.42B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted diluted EPS",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.30 vs. cons $2.05",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "O&P-Americas EBITDA",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1.17B vs. cons $1.01B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "O&P-Americas utilization / polymer-margin outlook",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~90% vs. cons 87% (3Q26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "I&D operating rate following Bayport restart",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~90% vs. cons 83% (3Q26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "PE price retention",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$0.45/lb vs. cons $0.35/lb (3Q26)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Cash-improvement program",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$500M vs. cons $500M (FY26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": 5.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": 8.0,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "pred ~+$0.25 adjusted EPS versus cons $2.05 and ~+$0.16B EBITDA versus cons $1.42B should be reinforced by higher 3Q utilization and Bayport-restart math, pulling 2H26 and FY27 estimates upward rather than leaving the beat as a one-quarter price spike.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}