{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "EBITDA (operating) \u2014 Q2 2026",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1,900M vs. cons $1,780M (Visible Alpha, 7/29/26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "O&P Americas EBITDA \u2014 Q2 2026",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1,150M vs. cons $1,070M (Visible Alpha, 7/29/26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "I&D EBITDA \u2014 Q2 2026",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$290M vs. cons $337M (Visible Alpha, 7/29/26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY 2026 EBITDA (FY 2026)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$4.8-5.0B vs. cons $4.998B (Visible Alpha, 7/29/26)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q3 2026 tone / O&P Americas operating rates (Q3 2026)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~85% utilization and sequential margin decline vs. cons implying ~$1.30B Q3 EBITDA",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.5,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -4.5,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "FOLLOW-THROUGH \u2014 sell-side cuts Q3 estimates on implied H2 math; consistent with every beat quarter in LYB 8-quarter history producing negative 5-day residuals",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}