Company | LyondellBasell Industries N.V. |
Ticker | LYB (NYSE) |
Reporting Period | Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30, 2026) |
Earnings Date | July 31, 2026 (pre-market) |
Prepared | July 30, 2026 |
Last Earnings | May 1, 2026 (Q1 2026) |
Sector ETF Benchmark | XLB (Materials Select Sector SPDR) |
Key Takeaway: The setup is constructive but the bar has risen sharply — consensus for Q2 2026 operating EPS of ~$3.40 implies a near-7x sequential jump from Q1 actuals, and the stock has already given back ~20% from its post-Q1 highs, suggesting the market is pricing in some disappointment on the magnitude or durability of the polyolefin margin spike.
LyondellBasell heads into Q2 2026 earnings with the most constructive fundamental backdrop in several years, but also the most elevated near-term expectations. Management guided on May 1 for "significant sequential improvement across almost all businesses" driven by Middle East conflict-induced supply tightness, and the consensus operating EPS estimate surged from ~$0.24 at the time of the Q1 print to ~$3.40 today — a revision magnitude that leaves little room for execution shortfalls. The O&P Americas segment is the primary swing factor: LYB announced cumulative $0.50/lb polyethylene price increases across April and May, targeted 90% nameplate utilization, and called April PE order books 20% above pre-war averages — but Dow's Q2 results (reported July 23) revealed a $0.15/lb June PE price settlement and guided Q3 margins $0.10/lb below Q2, signaling the peak of the margin spike may have passed. The Bayport PO/TBA restart (targeted by end of Q2, ~$25M/week earnings drag while down) is the key binary: a successful restart removes a meaningful headwind and unlocks full I&D rates, while any further delay would weigh on both Q2 actuals and Q3 guidance. The stock has de-rated from ~$77 post-earnings to ~$60 today, underperforming XLB materially, as crude oil prices softened and the market questioned the durability of the conflict-driven margin premium — the wildcard is whether management reaffirms that the supply disruption extends "many quarters beyond the eventual end of the disruption" or signals any moderation in tone, which would determine whether the stock re-rates toward or away from mid-cycle multiples.
Key Takeaway: Consensus for Q2 2026 operating EBITDA of ~$1.78B and operating EPS of ~$3.40 represent the highest quarterly bar in years — driven almost entirely by the O&P Americas margin surge. The bigger swing factor is whether the Bayport restart and European margin improvement land as guided; a miss on either could disappoint even against a consensus that already embeds significant sequential improvement.
KPI | Q1 2026 Actual | Q2 2025 Actual (Prior Year) | Q2 2026 Consensus Estimate | YoY Change | Guidance (Q1 Call, May 1) | Consensus vs. Guidance |
Net Sales ($B) | $7.197B | $7.658B | $9.158B | +19.6% YoY | Significant sequential improvement; no specific revenue guidance | N/A — no revenue guidance midpoint provided |
Operating EBITDA ($M) | $615M | $715M | $1,780M | +149% YoY | Significant sequential improvement across almost all businesses | Well above prior-year; no specific EBITDA midpoint given |
Diluted Operating EPS ($) | $0.49 | $0.62 | $3.40 | +446% YoY | No specific EPS guidance; implied by segment outlooks | N/A — no EPS guidance midpoint provided |
O&P Americas Operating EBITDA ($M) | $327M | $318M | $1,070M | +236% YoY | Higher margins & volumes; 90% nameplate utilization; $0.50/lb cumulative PE price increases (Apr+May) | Consensus well above prior year; directionally consistent with guidance |
O&P EAI Operating EBITDA ($M) | -$6M | $46M | $268M | N/M (from loss) | Rates raised to ~80%; improved polymer spreads; European asset sale reduces cost base | Directionally consistent with guidance; large swing from near-breakeven |
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. All consensus figures as of July 30, 2026. Q1 2026 actuals and Q2 2025 actuals from Visible Alpha reported figures. Guidance from LYB Q1 2026 Earnings Call (May 1, 2026) and Q1 2026 Earnings Press Release (May 1, 2026). No specific revenue or EPS guidance midpoints were provided by management; segment-level operating rate and margin direction guidance used where applicable.
KPI 1: Operating EBITDA | KPI 2: Diluted Operating EPS
Quarter | KPI | Reported | Consensus | Surprise % | Result |
Q1 2026 | Op. EBITDA | $615M | $555M | +10.8% | Beat |
Q1 2026 | Op. EPS | $0.49 | $0.24 | +104% | Significant Beat |
Q4 2025 | Op. EBITDA | $417M | $467M | -10.7% | Miss |
Q4 2025 | Op. EPS | -$0.26 | $0.12 | N/M | Significant Miss |
Q3 2025 | Op. EBITDA | $835M | $760M | +9.9% | Beat |
Q3 2025 | Op. EPS | $1.01 | $0.79 | +27.8% | Beat |
Q2 2025 | Op. EBITDA | $715M | $751M | -4.8% | Miss |
Q2 2025 | Op. EPS | $0.62 | $0.81 | -23.5% | Miss |
Q1 2025 | Op. EBITDA | $576M | $626M | -8.0% | Miss |
Q1 2025 | Op. EPS | $0.33 | $0.49 | -32.0% | Miss |
Q4 2024 | Op. EBITDA | $689M | $762M | -9.6% | Miss |
Q4 2024 | Op. EPS | $0.75 | $0.73 | +2.7% | Slight Beat |
Q3 2024 | Op. EBITDA | $1,211M | $1,299M | -6.8% | Miss |
Q3 2024 | Op. EPS | $1.88 | $2.03 | -7.4% | Miss |
Pattern: LYB has missed EBITDA consensus in 6 of the last 8 quarters, with the sole meaningful beat coming in Q1 2026 when the Middle East conflict drove a sharp, unexpected margin spike that consensus had not yet priced. The Q1 2026 EPS beat of ~104% was the largest positive surprise in the trailing 8-quarter window, but it also reset the bar dramatically higher for Q2 2026.
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data.
Key Takeaway: Management's tone on May 1 was the most bullish in years — explicitly calling for multi-quarter disruption benefits and announcing aggressive price increases. No formal guidance revisions have been issued since the Q1 earnings call; the baseline remains the May 1 segment-level operating rate and margin direction guidance. The key question for July 31 is whether management sustains that confident tone or moderates given Dow's June PE price settlement and crude oil softening.
Metric | Initial Guidance (Q1 2026 Earnings Call, May 1, 2026) | Revised Guidance | Current Consensus | Note |
O&P Americas Operating Rate | ~90% nameplate utilization in Q2 | — | Consensus EBITDA of ~$1.07B implies near-maximum utilization | No post-earnings revision; guidance unchanged |
O&P Americas PE Pricing | Cumulative $0.50/lb PE price increases (Apr + May); $0.10/lb PP spread increases in both months | — | Dow confirmed $0.15/lb June settlement (down); Dow announced $0.05/lb July increase | No LYB revision; Dow peer data suggests June gave back some gains — watch for Q3 guidance |
O&P EAI Operating Rate | ~80% across segment in Q2 | — | Consensus EBITDA of ~$268M implies significant swing from -$6M in Q1 | No post-earnings revision; European asset sale (effective May 1) reduces cost base by ~€400M/yr fixed costs |
I&D Operating Rate | ~75% in Q2; ~95–100% once Bayport PO/TBA restarts (targeted end of Q2) | — | Bayport restart status is key unknown; ~$25M/week earnings drag while down | No post-earnings revision; Bayport restart timing is the primary I&D wildcard |
Full-Year 2026 Tax Rate | Effective and cash tax rates both 15–20% | — | N/A — not tracked in VA consensus | No post-earnings revision |
Cash Improvement Plan (FY2026) | $500M incremental cash flow target for 2026 ($1.3B cumulative since 2025) | — | N/A — not tracked in VA consensus | No post-earnings revision; progress update expected July 31 |
European Asset Sale | Completed May 1, 2026 (four sites: Berre, Münchsmünster, Carrington, Tarragona sold to AEQUITA); €100M earnout retained | — | N/A | Transaction closed same day as Q1 earnings; reduces annual CapEx by ~€110M and fixed costs by ~€400M |
Source: LYB Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (May 1, 2026); LYB Q1 2026 Earnings Press Release (May 1, 2026); Dow Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 23, 2026).
Key Takeaway: Estimates for Q2 2026 and FY2026 have been revised dramatically upward since the Q1 print — Q2 operating EPS consensus jumped from $0.24 (post-Q1 baseline) to $3.40 today (+1,317%), and FY2026 operating EPS moved from $10.30 to $8.30 (a modest downward revision, likely reflecting June PE price settlement concerns). The gap between the pre-war consensus and today's numbers is enormous, meaning the bar is high but the fundamental backdrop (if sustained) supports it.
KPI (Period) | Estimate ~5 Days Post Q1 Earnings (as of May 8, 2026) | Current Consensus (July 30, 2026) | Estimate Δ (%) | Initial Guidance (May 1 Call) | Current Guidance | Guidance Δ | Consensus vs. Guidance (%) |
Op. EPS — Q2 2026 | $3.34 | $3.40 | +1.8% | No specific EPS guidance; implied by segment outlooks | Unchanged | — | N/A — no EPS midpoint |
Op. EBITDA — Q2 2026 | $1,754M | $1,780M | +1.5% | Significant sequential improvement; no specific EBITDA midpoint | Unchanged | — | N/A — no EBITDA midpoint |
Net Sales — Q2 2026 | $9,311M | $9,158M | -1.6% | No specific revenue guidance | Unchanged | — | N/A |
Op. EPS — FY2026 | $10.30 | $8.30 | -19.4% | No specific FY EPS guidance | Unchanged | — | N/A |
Op. EBITDA — FY2026 | $5,791M | $4,998M | -13.7% | No specific FY EBITDA guidance | Unchanged | — | N/A |
Commentary: The Q2 2026 consensus has been remarkably stable since the initial post-Q1 reset (EBITDA +1.5%, EPS +1.8%), suggesting the street quickly anchored to the conflict-driven margin thesis and has not materially revised since. The more telling signal is the FY2026 downward revision (-13.7% EBITDA, -19.4% EPS from the May 8 baseline), which reflects growing market skepticism that H2 2026 will sustain Q2-level margins — consistent with Dow's Q3 guide implying $0.10/lb PE margin compression. This divergence (Q2 stable, FY down) is the key tension heading into the print: if LYB's Q3 guidance is more constructive than Dow's, FY estimates could re-rate upward.
Source: Visible Alpha Consensus and Actuals Data. As-of date for post-Q1 baseline: May 8, 2026 (approximately 5 trading days after May 1, 2026 earnings release).
Key Takeaway: LYB has dramatically underperformed both XLB and the S&P 500 since Q1 earnings — down ~19% vs. XLB flat and SPY +3% — driven by crude oil softening, the June PE price settlement, and growing skepticism about H2 margin durability. The de-rating is sentiment-driven, not estimate-driven (Q2 consensus is nearly unchanged), suggesting the stock is pricing in a more cautious Q3 guide.
Metric | LYB | XLB (Materials ETF) | SPY (S&P 500) |
Price at Q1 Earnings (May 1, 2026) | $74.99 | $51.35 | $720.65 |
Price at July 29, 2026 (last close) | $60.49 | $51.74 | $729.46 |
Return Since Q1 Earnings | -19.3% | +0.8% | +1.2% |
Peak Price Since Q1 Earnings | $77.76 (May 5) | — | — |
Trough Price Since Q1 Earnings | $52.58 (Jul 1) | — | — |
Recovery from Trough to Jul 29 | +15.1% (Jul 1 → Jul 29) | — | — |
Performance Narrative: LYB peaked at $77.76 on May 5 (4 days post-earnings) as the market digested the magnitude of the Q1 beat and the bullish Q2 guide. The stock then sold off steadily through June 30 (closing at $52.65, -30% from peak) as crude oil prices softened, the June North American PE price settlement came in at -$0.15/lb (confirmed by Dow on July 23), and the market began pricing in H2 margin compression. A partial recovery of +15% from the July 1 trough to July 29 reflects pre-earnings positioning and Dow's relatively constructive Q3 commentary (PE order books picking up in July, $0.05/lb increase announced). The stock enters the print at $60.49 — roughly mid-range between the post-earnings peak and trough — suggesting the market is neither fully pricing in a beat nor a miss, but is highly sensitive to Q3 guidance tone.
Key Events Marked (since May 1, 2026):
Source: Stock Price Data (Yahoo Finance). XLB = Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF, the standard benchmark for US large-cap materials/chemicals companies.
Key Takeaway: The most important development since Q1 earnings is Dow's Q2 2026 results (July 23), which confirmed the June PE price settlement at -$0.15/lb but also signaled a $0.05/lb July recovery — a mixed read-through that explains LYB's partial stock recovery from its July trough. The Bayport PO/TBA restart status (targeted end of Q2) is the most critical company-specific unknown heading into the print.
Key Takeaway: Dow's Q2 2026 earnings (July 23) are the most important peer read-through: they confirm Q2 was the peak PE margin quarter, signal a $0.10/lb Q3 compression, but also show July order books recovering and a $0.05/lb increase announced — a mixed but not bearish setup for LYB's Q3 guide. Huntsman and Olin (both reporting July 30) add color on European energy headwinds and global volatility, but their product mix limits direct read-through to LYB's core polyolefins business.
Scope: Only commentary issued in the last 60 days (on or after June 1, 2026) that explicitly addresses Q3 2026 / post-Q2 forward outlook is included below. Commentary that merely describes completed Q2 2026 results without forward-looking content is excluded.
Relevance: HIGH — Dow is LYB's closest global polyolefins peer with overlapping North American ethylene/PE assets and European operations.
Topic | Dow's Forward-Looking Commentary (Q3 2026 / Beyond) | LYB Read-Through |
PE Pricing — Q3 Outlook | "That guide assumes $0.10 per pound decline in global integrated margins compared to the second quarter" incorporating the $0.15/lb June settlement; "no additional quarterly price movement assumed in the guide." Separately, Dow announced a $0.05/lb July increase: "the dynamics are there for us to get that." | Directly applicable to LYB's O&P Americas segment. Q3 PE margins will compress vs. Q2, but July dynamics are more constructive. LYB's Q3 guide will be the key read on whether it agrees with Dow's $0.10/lb compression assumption. |
Overall Q3 EBITDA Guide | "Our expectation for third quarter EBITDA is approximately $1.7 billion" — a sequential decline from Q2, driven by PE margin compression and seasonal patterns, partially offset by $130M in self-help tailwinds. | Sets the industry benchmark for Q3. LYB's Q3 EBITDA guide relative to Dow's $1.7B will be a key market focus; LYB has less self-help offset but more leverage to PE/PP spread recovery. |
PE Demand / Order Books | "Our order books already here in July have picked up. We are starting to see more orders come in from China." Packaging "remains resilient globally." "We fully expect to sell the products that we were able to produce." | Positive read-through for LYB's O&P Americas volumes in Q3. China order recovery and packaging resilience support LYB's export thesis and North American operating rates. |
North American Ethane / Feedstock | "Our view is that [ethane] pricing will stay low. There's ample supply." Over 60% of Dow's assets in feedstock-advantaged regions. Propane-naphtha spread widening as naphtha rises with oil but propane rises less. | Highly positive for LYB's North American cost advantage. Low ethane costs and widening pro-nap spread reinforce LYB's structural cost edge vs. naphtha-based Asian/European producers. |
European Operations — Q3 Outlook | Restarted lowest-cost Terneuzen cracker (idled since mid-2025); "first quartile cracker in that region." Expects "lower margins overall" in II&I driven by "typical lower seasonal demand" and "downward pricing pressure in Europe." Böhlen cracker shutdown on track for 2027. | Mixed for LYB's O&P EAI. Dow restarting a low-cost European cracker adds regional supply competition, but Böhlen shutdown in 2027 is a longer-term positive. Seasonal margin pressure in Europe is a shared headwind. |
Middle East / Strait of Hormuz | "Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains below historical levels, continuing to disrupt global supply chains." Geopolitical tensions remain elevated; "renewed value placed on supply security." | Confirms the supply disruption thesis that underpins LYB's entire Q2–Q3 margin recovery narrative remains intact. Supports LYB management's view that impacts will persist "many quarters." |
Macro / Demand Signals | "This is a dynamic period. The geopolitical and macro backdrops remain volatile and demand signals are mixed." Americas consumers "remained steady." Asia Pacific: "soft regional consumer demand" but "industrial production and manufacturing activity have recently accelerated." | Broadly consistent with LYB's operating environment. Mixed demand signals suggest no broad-based demand acceleration, but also no collapse — supply tightness remains the primary margin driver. |
Source: Dow Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (July 23, 2026).
Relevance: MODERATE — Huntsman's primary segments (Polyurethanes/MDI, Performance Products, Advanced Materials) differ from LYB's core polyolefins, but both share European energy cost exposure and broad chemical industry macro dynamics.
Topic | Huntsman's Forward-Looking Commentary (Post-Q2 / Ongoing) | LYB Read-Through |
European Energy Costs — Ongoing | "Rising and volatile energy and crude oil related costs, particularly in Europe, remain a headwind." Company will "stay focused on additional price increases and cost-reduction initiatives to help offset these pressures." | Confirms European energy cost pressure is a persistent, industry-wide headwind extending into Q3. LYB's European O&P segment faces the same dynamic, though LYB's fixed cost base has been materially reduced by ~€400M/yr post-AEQUITA sale. |
Construction Demand — Ongoing Softness | "Improved industrial demand helped counter continued softness in construction." Implies construction weakness is an ongoing trend, not a one-quarter event. | Relevant for LYB's APS segment and construction-exposed polyolefin applications. Continued construction softness is a modest headwind for LYB's non-packaging end markets. |
Note: Huntsman's planned merger with Olin Corporation (stockholder vote scheduled August 25, 2026) is a company-specific strategic event with no direct read-through for LYB's market or operational outlook.
Source: Huntsman Corporation Q2 2026 Earnings Release (July 30, 2026).
Relevance: MODERATE — Olin's chlor-alkali/vinyls business differs from LYB's polyolefins core, but Olin's Q3 forward guidance on European demand, ethylene derivative pricing, and global volatility provides useful macro read-throughs.
Topic | Olin's Forward-Looking Commentary (Q3 2026) | LYB Read-Through |
Q3 2026 Chemical Outlook | "Looking ahead, we expect our Chemical businesses' third quarter 2026 results to be comparable to the second quarter, as reduced operating rates at the vinyl chloride monomer facility and weaker ethylene dichloride pricing offset expected stronger caustic soda volumes." Q3 adjusted EBITDA forecast: $160–200M, citing "continued significant global volatility." | Signals a broadly flat/stable chemical market in Q3 rather than a strong rebound. Weaker EDC pricing is a mild negative read-through for ethylene derivative demand, which could indirectly pressure ethylene pricing relevant to LYB's cracker economics. |
European Demand — Q3 Ongoing | "Epoxy continued to improve as margins expanded despite persistent weak demand conditions in Europe." Implies European end-market demand weakness is expected to persist into Q3. | "Persistent weak demand conditions in Europe" is a meaningful macro read-through for LYB's O&P EAI segment. European polymer demand recovery may be slower than the supply-side improvement suggests. |
Global Volatility / Macro Risk | "With continued significant global volatility, third quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA is forecast to be in the range of $160 million to $200 million." Cites raw material/energy/logistics cost availability as ongoing risk. | Confirms the macro environment remains unpredictable. LYB's earnings are highly leveraged to commodity price volatility; Olin's explicit "significant global volatility" framing is consistent with LYB's own risk profile. |
VCM Plant / Freeport, TX | Unplanned VCM plant shutdown at Freeport, TX; "operations have resumed at reduced rates." Estimated $20M Q3 EBITDA impact; full rates planned to resume late in Q3. | Modest positive for regional ethylene supply tightness (reduced VCM demand = less ethylene consumed by Olin at Freeport). Limited direct impact on LYB but marginally supportive of North American ethylene market balance. |
Source: Olin Corporation Q2 2026 Earnings Release (July 30, 2026).
Theme | Net Signal | Primary Source |
North American PE Pricing (Q3) | Negative vs. Q2 peak (-$0.10/lb margin compression assumed by Dow), but July recovery underway (+$0.05/lb announced) | Dow Q2 2026 Earnings Call (Jul 23) |
North American Ethane / Feedstock Cost | Positive — ethane prices expected to remain low; propane-naphtha spread widening reinforces US cost advantage | Dow Q2 2026 Earnings Call (Jul 23) |
PE/Polymer Demand / Order Books | Positive — July order books picking up; China orders recovering; packaging resilient globally | Dow Q2 2026 Earnings Call (Jul 23) |
Middle East Supply Disruption | Positive — Strait of Hormuz traffic remains below historical levels; supply disruption thesis intact | Dow Q2 2026 Earnings Call (Jul 23) |
European Energy Costs | Negative — rising and volatile energy/crude costs in Europe remain a persistent headwind | Huntsman Q2 2026 Earnings Release (Jul 30) |
European End-Market Demand | Negative — persistent weak demand conditions in Europe; seasonal margin pressure expected in Q3 | Olin Q2 2026 Earnings Release (Jul 30); Dow Q2 2026 Earnings Call (Jul 23) |
Global Macro / Volatility | Neutral/Cautious — "significant global volatility" persists; demand signals mixed; no broad-based acceleration | Olin Q2 2026 Earnings Release (Jul 30); Dow Q2 2026 Earnings Call (Jul 23) |
Key Takeaway: Only one open-market insider transaction has been disclosed since Q1 earnings — a discretionary open-market sale by the EVP & Chief Legal Officer in mid-May. The sale is modest in size relative to the insider's remaining holdings and occurred shortly after the post-earnings stock peak, but there is no cluster of insider buying or selling that would signal a strong directional view from management.
Name | Title | Transaction Type | Shares | Transaction Date | Filing Date | Note |
Jeffrey A. Kaplan | EVP, Chief PC, Legal & Corporate Officer | Open Market Sale | 10,000 shares | May 13, 2026 | May 15, 2026 | Discretionary sale (not flagged as 10b5-1 plan); 96,674 shares remaining post-sale; sold near post-earnings peak (~$73–$77 range) |
Commentary: The single disclosed transaction — a 10,000-share open-market sale by the Chief Legal Officer on May 13, 2026 (transaction date) / May 15, 2026 (filing/disclosure date) — is not flagged as a 10b5-1 pre-planned sale, making it a discretionary transaction. The sale occurred approximately 8 trading days after the Q1 earnings beat and near the stock's post-earnings peak. While the sale is not large relative to the insider's remaining 96,674-share position, the absence of any open-market buying by senior management (CEO, CFO, or other C-suite) during the subsequent ~30% stock decline from peak to trough is notable. No insider buying has been disclosed during the June–July selloff, which limits the bullish signal one might otherwise draw from a deeply discounted stock.
Source: SEC Form 4 Filings Database (Insider Transaction Data). Transaction date: May 13, 2026; Form 4 filing/disclosure date: May 15, 2026.
Disclaimer: This document is prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All estimates and consensus figures are sourced from Visible Alpha and are subject to change. Past beat/miss history is not indicative of future results. Prepared July 30, 2026.