| LYV |
Report |
Total Adjusted Operating Income (AOI) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$620M vs. cons ~$625M |
MEDIUM |
| LYV |
Report |
Revenue |
MISS |
pred ~$7.38B vs. cons ~$7.53B |
MEDIUM |
| LYV |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$0.58 vs. cons ~$0.59 |
LOW |
| LYV |
Guide |
FY2026 AOI growth reaffirmation |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~low-double-digit AOI growth vs. cons ~+11-12% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| LYV |
Guide |
Event-related deferred revenue (forward booking) |
BETTER |
guide ~$7.0B+ / +20% vs. cons ~$6.6B implied (as-of Q2 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| LYV |
Guide |
Concerts fan growth / attendance |
LOWER |
guide Q2 fans ~+5-7% vs. cons ~+9-10%, but 2H stadium/amphitheater ramp intact (Q2/2H 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| LYV |
Guide |
Sponsorship & Advertising AOI growth |
BETTER |
guide ~+18-20% vs. cons ~+15% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| LYV |
Guide |
Ticketing FY AOI margin (secondary crackdown headwind) |
UNCHANGED |
guide margin ~similar to FY25 w/ mid-single-digit AOI headwind vs. cons ~flat (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| LYV |
Guide |
Antitrust remedies-phase / additional accrual update |
UNKNOWN |
guide incremental accrual ~$0 vs. cons ~$0 baseline; structural-separation tail risk unpriced (2H 2026 remedies phase) |
LOW |
| LYV |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-2.0% |
— |
LOW |
| LYV |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-3.5% (FADE) |
Stock at all-time highs (+28% YTD) is priced for perfection into a deliberately back-half-weighted quarter, so a decelerating ~8% headline and lower-margin third-party-arena mix leave little upside even with a FY reaffirmation and record deferred revenue. Out-period math is the tell: Q2 fan/AOI growth being pushed to Q3/Q4 means near-term estimates get trimmed while the burden of proof shifts to the summer stadium slate, and the unresolved antitrust verdict (structural-separation/amphitheater-divestiture risk in the remedies phase) caps multiple expansion. Any initial 'story intact' bounce should fade as revisions stay neutral-to-down and the antitrust overhang re-asserts. |
LOW |