{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Total Adjusted Operating Income (AOI)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$620M vs. cons ~$625M",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Revenue",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$7.38B vs. cons ~$7.53B",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$0.58 vs. cons ~$0.59",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 AOI growth reaffirmation",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~low-double-digit AOI growth vs. cons ~+11-12% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Event-related deferred revenue (forward booking)",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$7.0B+ / +20% vs. cons ~$6.6B implied (as-of Q2 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Concerts fan growth / attendance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide Q2 fans ~+5-7% vs. cons ~+9-10%, but 2H stadium/amphitheater ramp intact (Q2/2H 2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Sponsorship & Advertising AOI growth",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~+18-20% vs. cons ~+15% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Ticketing FY AOI margin (secondary crackdown headwind)",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide margin ~similar to FY25 w/ mid-single-digit AOI headwind vs. cons ~flat (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Antitrust remedies-phase / additional accrual update",
      "prediction": "UNKNOWN",
      "answer": "guide incremental accrual ~$0 vs. cons ~$0 baseline; structural-separation tail risk unpriced (2H 2026 remedies phase)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -2.0,
  "day1_confidence": "LOW",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Stock at all-time highs (+28% YTD) is priced for perfection into a deliberately back-half-weighted quarter, so a decelerating ~8% headline and lower-margin third-party-arena mix leave little upside even with a FY reaffirmation and record deferred revenue. Out-period math is the tell: Q2 fan/AOI growth being pushed to Q3/Q4 means near-term estimates get trimmed while the burden of proof shifts to the summer stadium slate, and the unresolved antitrust verdict (structural-separation/amphitheater-divestiture risk in the remedies phase) caps multiple expansion. Any initial 'story intact' bounce should fade as revisions stay neutral-to-down and the antitrust overhang re-asserts.",
  "day5_confidence": "LOW"
}