| LYV |
Report |
Total Revenue |
BEAT |
pred ~$7.65B vs. cons $7.53B |
MEDIUM |
| LYV |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
MISS |
pred ~$0.50 vs. cons $0.59 |
MEDIUM |
| LYV |
Report |
Concerts Segment AOI |
MISS |
pred ~$130M vs. cons ~$165M |
LOW |
| LYV |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted Operating Income (AOI) growth |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~10% vs. cons ~10% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| LYV |
Guide |
Q3 2026 Concerts/Venue Nation seasonal inflection (stadium/amphitheater fan growth skew) |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~70% of amphitheater growth and all stadium growth in 2H vs. cons ~50-60% assumed (Q3 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| LYV |
Guide |
Ticketmaster/Ticketing AOI headwind from anti-scalping crackdown |
LOWER |
guide ~-5% to Ticketing AOI vs. cons ~-3% modeled headwind (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| LYV |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-3.2% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| LYV |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-1.5% (FADE) |
An EPS miss (messy bottom line has been the norm — 3 of last 4 quarters missed) plus any incremental antitrust/post-trial-motion headline risk should trigger an initial negative idiosyncratic reaction, especially given the stock's run to 52-week highs (~$184, +26% YTD) leaving little room for disappointment. However, because management is expected to reiterate the unchanged full-year double-digit AOI framework and confirm the already-flagged Q3/Q4 seasonal inflection (stadiums/amphitheaters), sell-side estimate revisions for the out-periods (Q3/Q4/FY) likely stay largely intact rather than being cut further, causing the initial drop to partially fade over the week as bulls (BTIG/Citizens/Oppenheimer $200-215 PTs) reiterate theses on unchanged guidance. The unresolved antitrust remedy/Tunney Act overhang caps a full recovery, keeping the fade only partial rather than a full round-trip. |
LOW |