MA Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-30

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MA Report 2Q26 net revenue BEAT pred ~$9.18B vs. cons $9.07B MEDIUM
MA Report 2Q26 adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$4.88 vs. cons $4.77 MEDIUM
MA Report 2Q26 VAS currency-neutral revenue growth BEAT pred ~19% vs. cons 17% MEDIUM
MA Guide FY26 currency-neutral net-revenue growth LOWER guide ~11.5% vs. cons 12.0% (FY26) MEDIUM
MA Guide FY26 adjusted operating-expense growth, currency-neutral UNCHANGED guide ~11.0% vs. cons 11.0% (FY26) MEDIUM
MA Guide 2H26 cross-border-travel recovery assumption LOWER guide ~6% growth vs. cons 9% growth (2H26) LOW
MA Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -2.8% MEDIUM
MA Return 5-day cumulative residual -4.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) A ~2% EPS beat and ~1% revenue beat are likely outweighed by ~50 bps of implicit FY26 revenue-growth de-risking: July geopolitical/travel conditions weaken the assumed 2H cross-border recovery, pulling FY26 and FY27 revenue/EPS estimates lower despite strong VAS. Pred ~11.5% FY26 revenue growth vs. cons 12.0%; pred ~$20.40 FY26 EPS vs. cons ~$20.75. MEDIUM