{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Core FFO per share (Q2)26)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$2.08 vs. cons ~$2.06",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Blended lease rate growth (Q2 same--store the pricing inflection)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~+0.5% vs. cons ~+0.9%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Same-Store NOI growth (Q2)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~-0.5% vs. cons ~-0.6%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Core FFO/share guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$8.53 midpoint vs. cons ~$8.55 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Same-Store revenue growth guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~+0.55% midpoint vs. cons ~+0.7% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Same-Store NOI growth guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~-0.7% midpoint vs. cons ~-0.4% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "July new-lease / new-lease growth trajectory (Q3 setup commentary)",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "pred ~-6% new-lease vs. cons ~-5% implied (Q2/July)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.8,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -2.8,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Core FFO prints near the telegraphed $2.06-2.08 midpoint, so the headline is a non-event; the stock has already round-tripped from $120 to $142 and drifted back to $135 into the print as a 'show-me' name. The move hinges on the new-lease inflection and a guide raise. Base case is a reaffirm (not a raise) with new-lease growth still ~-6% and blended tracking the low end, echoing 2025's mid-year stall. The out-period math is demanding \u2014 hitting the FY +1.0-1.5% blended target requires ~1.3-1.8% blends over the back three quarters \u2014 so even a modest Q2 beat forces the Street to keep 2026 estimates flat-to-lower and defers the recovery to 2027. That asymmetry drives a mild negative day-1 residual that continues to bleed over five days (fade) as sell-side notes trim second-half blend/NOI assumptions and reiterate 'prove-it' until pricing actually inflects.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}