MAA Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MAA Report Core FFO per share (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~$2.10 vs. cons $2.08 MEDIUM
MAA Report Total/Same-Store Revenue (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~$558.5M vs. cons $557.3M MEDIUM
MAA Report Blended Lease-over-Lease Rate Growth (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~1.1% vs. cons/implied-guide-bridge ~0.5% MEDIUM
MAA Guide FY2026 Core FFO guidance (full-year range/midpoint) UNCHANGED guide ~$8.55 vs. cons $8.53 (FY2026) MEDIUM
MAA Guide FY2026 Same-Store NOI growth guidance BETTER guide ~-0.50% vs. cons/prior-midpoint -0.70% (FY2026) MEDIUM
MAA Guide Q3 2026 Core FFO guidance UNKNOWN guide ~$2.14 vs. cons $2.14 (Q3 2026) LOW
MAA Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.0% MEDIUM
MAA Return 5-day cumulative residual -0.4% (FADE) A confirmed sequential new-lease acceleration and cost-control beat should produce a modest positive day-1 pop since expectations were already de-risked (stock down from $139 to $135.67, tightened but still-negative full-year same-store NOI guide). However, the underlying full-year NOI outlook stays negative and rising interest expense (financing the Sept. $300M maturity, buybacks, delayed-draw term loan) keeps out-year FFO growth capped, so sell-side models likely trim 2027 estimates even after an in-line/slight-beat quarter, causing initial gains to partially fade over the following days as the 'still a transition year' framing reasserts itself. LOW