MAA Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-29

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MAA Report Core FFO per diluted share BEAT pred ~$2.10 vs. cons $2.07 MEDIUM
MAA Report Same-store revenue growth BEAT pred ~0.4% vs. cons 0.1% MEDIUM
MAA Report Effective blended lease-rate growth BEAT pred ~1.2% vs. cons 0.7% MEDIUM
MAA Guide FY2026 Core FFO per diluted share midpoint BETTER guide ~$8.57 vs. cons $8.54 (FY2026) MEDIUM
MAA Guide FY2026 same-store NOI growth midpoint BETTER guide ~-0.5% vs. cons -0.7% (FY2026) MEDIUM
MAA Guide FY2026 effective blended lease-rate growth midpoint BETTER guide ~1.4% vs. cons 1.2% (FY2026) MEDIUM
MAA Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.5% MEDIUM
MAA Return 5-day cumulative residual +3.5% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) ~+3.5% five-day residual vs. ~0.0% neutral benchmark: a modest Core FFO beat should be reinforced by higher FY2026 NOI and blended-lease-rate guideposts, lifting 2027 revenue/NOI assumptions rather than producing a quarter-only beat. MEDIUM