| MAR |
Report |
Adjusted EPS (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$3.12 vs. cons $3.06 |
MEDIUM |
| MAR |
Report |
Worldwide RevPAR (constant-$, Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~+2.8% vs. cons ~+2.2% (guide +1.5–2.5%) |
MEDIUM |
| MAR |
Report |
Gross fee revenues (Q2'26) |
BEAT |
pred ~$1,558M vs. cons ~$1,548M (guide $1,538–1,553M) |
LOW |
| MAR |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted EPS guide |
BETTER |
guide ~$11.68 vs. cons ~$11.58 (FY2026; prior $11.38–11.63) |
MEDIUM |
| MAR |
Guide |
FY2026 Worldwide RevPAR guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~2.5% (reaffirm +2–3%) vs. cons ~2.5% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MAR |
Guide |
FY2026 gross fee revenue guide |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~$5.97B (reaffirm $5.93–5.99B) vs. cons ~$5.96B (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MAR |
Guide |
Q2 Middle East RevPAR / IMF trajectory |
BETTER |
pred ~-45% vs. guide/cons ~-50% (Q2'26); IMF down ~mid-single-digit |
LOW |
| MAR |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-1.0% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| MAR |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-2.5% (FADE) |
Even a clean beat likely gets sold: Hilton beat on July 28 (US RevPAR +5.4%) yet HLT faded ~3% over the following five sessions, signaling peaky lodging sentiment and a 'priced-in' US re-accel. MAR's EPS beat is partly buyback-aided (low quality) and Q2 is the self-designated Middle East trough, so a reaffirmed/only-modestly-raised FY implies little upward out-quarter revision. With MAR still ~7% below its June high but on a premium multiple, the out-period math (implicit caps on H2 from ME/IMF drag) pulls estimates flat-to-down after the print, driving continued fade rather than follow-through. |
MEDIUM |