{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted EPS (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.12 vs. cons $3.06",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Worldwide RevPAR (constant-$, Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~+2.8% vs. cons ~+2.2% (guide +1.5\u20132.5%)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Gross fee revenues (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "BEAT",
      "answer": "pred ~$1,558M vs. cons ~$1,548M (guide $1,538\u20131,553M)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EPS guide",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "guide ~$11.68 vs. cons ~$11.58 (FY2026; prior $11.38\u201311.63)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Worldwide RevPAR guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~2.5% (reaffirm +2\u20133%) vs. cons ~2.5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 gross fee revenue guide",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~$5.97B (reaffirm $5.93\u20135.99B) vs. cons ~$5.96B (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Q2 Middle East RevPAR / IMF trajectory",
      "prediction": "BETTER",
      "answer": "pred ~-45% vs. guide/cons ~-50% (Q2'26); IMF down ~mid-single-digit",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.0,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -2.5,
  "day5_path": "FADE",
  "day5_rationale": "Even a clean beat likely gets sold: Hilton beat on July 28 (US RevPAR +5.4%) yet HLT faded ~3% over the following five sessions, signaling peaky lodging sentiment and a 'priced-in' US re-accel. MAR's EPS beat is partly buyback-aided (low quality) and Q2 is the self-designated Middle East trough, so a reaffirmed/only-modestly-raised FY implies little upward out-quarter revision. With MAR still ~7% below its June high but on a premium multiple, the out-period math (implicit caps on H2 from ME/IMF drag) pulls estimates flat-to-down after the print, driving continued fade rather than follow-through.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}