| MAR |
Report |
Adjusted Diluted EPS (Q2'26) |
IN-LINE |
pred ~$3.01 vs. cons $3.04 |
MEDIUM |
| MAR |
Report |
Worldwide RevPAR growth (Q2'26) |
MISS |
pred ~1.6% vs. cons 2.0% |
MEDIUM |
| MAR |
Report |
Gross Fee Revenue (Q2'26) |
MISS |
pred ~$1,545M vs. cons $1,580M |
LOW |
| MAR |
Guide |
FY2026 Global RevPAR growth guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~2.0%-3.0% vs. cons ~2.5% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MAR |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted EPS guidance |
LOWER |
guide ~$11.15-$11.45 vs. cons $11.50 (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MAR |
Guide |
Middle East RevPAR / Q3 regional commentary |
LOWER |
guide ~-45% to -55% Q3 RevPAR decline vs. cons expectation of stabilization near -20% to -30% (Q3 2026) |
LOW |
| MAR |
Guide |
Net rooms growth guidance |
UNCHANGED |
guide ~4.5%-5.0% vs. cons 4.7% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MAR |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-1.8% |
— |
MEDIUM |
| MAR |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-3.2% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) |
Even if Q2 prints roughly in line with the low end of MAR's own guidance, the persistence/escalation of the Middle East conflict since the Q1 call likely forces a trim to full-year RevPAR and EPS guidance (implicit out-period cuts), echoing the Hilton playbook where a beat-and-raise still sold off on 'quality of guidance' scrutiny. With consensus sitting at the high end of management's range and Street models (e.g., Zacks ESP) already primed for a clean beat, any softness in H2 Middle East/World Cup commentary should trigger sell-side EPS/RevPAR estimate cuts over the following days, pulling the stock lower through day 5 rather than stabilizing, unless management explicitly signals de-escalation-driven upside to H2 bookings. |
MEDIUM |