{
  "report_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "Adjusted Diluted EPS (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "IN-LINE",
      "answer": "pred ~$3.01 vs. cons $3.04",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Worldwide RevPAR growth (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~1.6% vs. cons 2.0%",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Gross Fee Revenue (Q2'26)",
      "prediction": "MISS",
      "answer": "pred ~$1,545M vs. cons $1,580M",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    }
  ],
  "guide_rows": [
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Global RevPAR growth guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~2.0%-3.0% vs. cons ~2.5% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "FY2026 Adjusted EPS guidance",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~$11.15-$11.45 vs. cons $11.50 (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Middle East RevPAR / Q3 regional commentary",
      "prediction": "LOWER",
      "answer": "guide ~-45% to -55% Q3 RevPAR decline vs. cons expectation of stabilization near -20% to -30% (Q3 2026)",
      "confidence": "LOW"
    },
    {
      "kpi": "Net rooms growth guidance",
      "prediction": "UNCHANGED",
      "answer": "guide ~4.5%-5.0% vs. cons 4.7% (FY2026)",
      "confidence": "MEDIUM"
    }
  ],
  "day1_residual_pct": -1.8,
  "day1_confidence": "MEDIUM",
  "day5_residual_pct": -3.2,
  "day5_path": "FOLLOW-THROUGH",
  "day5_rationale": "Even if Q2 prints roughly in line with the low end of MAR's own guidance, the persistence/escalation of the Middle East conflict since the Q1 call likely forces a trim to full-year RevPAR and EPS guidance (implicit out-period cuts), echoing the Hilton playbook where a beat-and-raise still sold off on 'quality of guidance' scrutiny. With consensus sitting at the high end of management's range and Street models (e.g., Zacks ESP) already primed for a clean beat, any softness in H2 Middle East/World Cup commentary should trigger sell-side EPS/RevPAR estimate cuts over the following days, pulling the stock lower through day 5 rather than stabilizing, unless management explicitly signals de-escalation-driven upside to H2 bookings.",
  "day5_confidence": "MEDIUM"
}