Good, now let me check other search results for more color and get updated Middle East/Iran war impact details, plus check other lodging peers' results (HLT) for context.Now let me check Hilton and Hyatt for peer read-through, and any other MAR-specific recent news (credit card deal news, Lefay, hotel sale, World Cup performance).# Marriott International (MAR) — Q2 2026 Earnings Preview
Report date: Monday, August 3, 2026, before market open Call: 2026Q2 Earnings Call
Marriott's Q1 2026 print was clean: RevPAR and financial results came in above the top end of guidance ranges, with global net rooms growth of 4.5% over the trailing 12 months and first quarter global RevPAR up 4.2%. Adjusted EBITDA rose 15% to $1.4 billion and adjusted diluted EPS jumped 17% to $2.72. Off that beat, management raised full-year global RevPAR guidance to 2%–3%, but the tone shifted meaningfully on the international side: the conflict in the Middle East had already begun weighing on March results, and by the earnings call management was guiding to a ~50% RevPAR decline in the Middle East during Q2 — the hardest-hit quarter — with the war's total drag estimated at 100–125 bps off full-year global RevPAR.
Since that May call, the regional conflict has escalated into a broader U.S.–Iran war (beginning in late February) that has disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipping and prompted Iranian missile strikes on a U.S. base in Jordan, with President Trump only this weekend canceling planned new strikes on Iranian energy targets while citing progress toward a deal. That is the single biggest swing factor for tomorrow's print and for the outlook commentary: investors will want to know whether the ~50% Middle East RevPAR decline embedded in guidance actually materialized, worsened, or is showing early signs of stabilizing.
| Metric | Q2 2026 Guidance |
|---|---|
| Worldwide RevPAR growth | 1.5% to 2.5% |
| Gross fee revenues | $1,538M – $1,553M (+10% to 11%) |
| Incentive management fees | Down mid-single digits |
| Owned/leased net revenue | ~$60M |
| G&A expense | $220M – $230M (mid-to-high single digit growth) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $1,525M – $1,550M (+8% to 10%) |
| Adjusted diluted EPS | $2.99 – $3.06 |
| Adjusted effective tax rate | ~26.5% |
Full-year 2026 guidance calls for gross fees of $5.925–$5.985 billion, Adjusted EBITDA of $5.88–$5.97 billion, Adjusted EPS of $11.38–$11.63 (14–16% growth), net rooms growth of 4.5%–5%, investment spending of $1.05–$1.15 billion, and capital returns to shareholders of over $4.4 billion.
Wall Street is modeling Q2 results roughly in line with the high end of Marriott's own guidance. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter EPS is pegged at $3.06, indicating growth of 15.5% from $2.65 a year ago, with revenue consensus near $7.3 billion, up 7.7% year over year. Other trackers put consensus slightly lower, around an adjusted EPS of $3.03, up 14.3% from $2.65 in the year-ago quarter. Marriott has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, missing once, with an average surprise of 1.5%, and Zacks' quantitative model currently points to another beat given an Earnings ESP of +1.88% combined with a Zacks Rank of #3.
Sell-side models broadly expect the same story as Q1, just muted internationally: resilient leisure demand, improving select-service trends, solid group business, and continued growth in fee revenues, with group booking pace for full-year 2026 running roughly 5% ahead of the prior year. On the U.S. side, one model predicts second-quarter RevPAR in the United States and Canada to increase 2.1% year over year, while gross fees are expected to be lifted by co-branded credit cards and residential branding, with one estimate putting second-quarter gross fee revenues up 10.8% year over year to $1.6 billion. On the cost side, models expect incentive management fees to decline roughly 3.8% year over year to about $192 million and G&A expenses to rise about 9.2% to $229 million — both consistent with management's own Q2 guidance for IMF declines and elevated compensation-related G&A.
1. Middle East drag — better, worse, or as expected? This is the swing factor. Management's guidance already bakes in a ~50% Q2 RevPAR decline in the region (which represents only about 3% of open rooms and 3% of 2025 gross fees, so the P&L impact is contained), but the escalation into a wider U.S.–Iran conflict since the Q1 call raises the question of whether bookings have deteriorated further or begun to recover. Watch for updated commentary on Gulf-hub connectivity effects bleeding into India, the Maldives, and broader APAC long-haul demand.
2. FIFA World Cup contribution Management has stood by its expectation that the U.S./Canada/Mexico-hosted World Cup adds 30–35 bps to global RevPAR, concentrated in Q2 and Q3, despite media reports of softer demand and group cancellations. Q2 is the first quarter where this shows up in actuals — a clean beat on U.S. RevPAR could validate the thesis; a miss would raise questions about the durability of that tailwind into Q3.
3. U.S. broadening beyond luxury Q1 showed select-service RevPAR inflecting positive (+3.5%) after a weak Q4, a trend Marriott attributed to trade-down toward domestic, drive-to leisure and continued resilience in lower-income consumer travel spend. Confirmation that this broadening persisted through Q2 — alongside continued strength in group and ex-government business transient — would be a positive read for the U.S. lodging cycle generally.
4. Development & rooms growth The pipeline hit a record ~618,000 rooms in Q1 (+5% y/y, 43% under construction), with conversions driving over 35% of signings and 40% of openings. Confirmation of the 4.5%–5% net rooms growth trajectory, plus updates on mid-scale ramp and the Lefay luxury-wellness brand entry, will matter for the long-term unit-growth story that underpins Marriott's asset-light multiple.
5. Co-branded credit card renegotiation Marriott is in active talks with Visa, Chase, and Amex on new U.S. card deals, expected to close later in 2026; none of this is baked into current guidance. Any signal on timing or economics would be an incremental positive catalyst not yet priced into estimates.
6. Capital returns and buybacks Marriott repurchased $0.7 billion of stock in Q1 alone and guided to returning over $4.4 billion to shareholders in 2026. With shares down from 2026 highs, continued aggressive buybacks would reinforce the capital-return narrative.
Hilton reported its Q2 print in late July with 3.9% RevPAR growth and results that came in largely as analysts had expected, with revenue and earnings roughly matching estimates, while Hilton raised its full-year outlook, to a 3%–3.5% full-year RevPAR growth range. Notably, despite beating and raising, Hilton shares fell 3.4% — a signal that the market is scrutinizing the quality and durability of guidance raises this earnings season rather than rewarding simple beats. That's a useful lens for how MAR shares could react even to an in-line-or-better quarter if commentary on the Middle East or second-half trends disappoints.
Elsewhere in travel, Delta delivered year-on-year revenue growth of 18.7%, beating expectations by 3.9%, while Frontier reported revenue up 37.7%, topping estimates by 4.6% — broadly supportive of resilient travel demand, though Delta traded down 3.2% following results while Frontier rose 12%, again underscoring divergent stock reactions even amid demand strength.
MAR shares have had a strong 2026, rallying from roughly $313 in early January to a 2026 high near $402 in mid-June, before pulling back to the $365–$385 range through July on broader market volatility and Middle East headline risk; shares closed near $373 heading into the print. Marriott is heading into earnings with an average analyst price target of $384.83 versus a current share price of $373.25, implying modest upside if estimates hold. Analysts covering the company have generally reconfirmed their estimates over the last 30 days, suggesting limited pre-print repositioning, though Marriott has missed Wall Street's revenue estimates multiple times over the last two years — a point worth flagging given consensus revenue near $7.2–7.3 billion this quarter.
Broader sentiment heading into the print is relatively positive due to healthy travel fundamentals, minimal oil exposure, and favorable secular tailwinds for room growth, though geopolitical turmoil is reported to be hurting demand at the margin.
Marriott's fee-driven, asset-light model, record development pipeline, and still-resilient U.S. leisure/group demand give it a fairly high floor heading into Q2. The real debate is entirely about the numerator and denominator of the Middle East drag: guidance already assumes a roughly 50% RevPAR decline there, and the subsequent escalation of the U.S.–Iran conflict makes it a genuine open question whether that assumption holds, worsens, or — if de-escalation reported over the weekend proves durable — actually turns into a modest upside surprise for H2 guidance. Secondary but still important swing factors are World Cup contribution to U.S. RevPAR, further evidence of select-service/broad-based U.S. strength, and any incremental color on the pending U.S. co-branded card renegotiation, which represents unguided upside. With consensus EPS near $3.03–$3.06 sitting at the upper end of Marriott's own $2.99–$3.06 guidance range, this looks like a quarter where an in-line beat may not be enough — investors, following the Hilton playbook, will be watching full-year guidance revisions and Middle East commentary as much as the Q2 numbers themselves.