MAR Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-03

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MAR Report Global RevPAR growth MISS pred ~1.7% vs. cons 2.0% MEDIUM
MAR Report Adjusted EBITDA IN-LINE pred ~$1.55B vs. cons $1.54B MEDIUM
MAR Report Adjusted diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$3.10 vs. cons $3.05 MEDIUM
MAR Guide Global RevPAR growth UNCHANGED guide ~2.5% vs. cons 2.5% (FY2026) MEDIUM
MAR Guide Adjusted EBITDA LOWER guide ~$5.94B vs. cons $5.97B (FY2026) MEDIUM
MAR Guide Adjusted diluted EPS LOWER guide ~$11.60 vs. cons $11.66 (FY2026) MEDIUM
MAR Guide Net room growth UNCHANGED guide ~4.75% vs. cons 4.75% (FY2026) HIGH
MAR Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -3.2% MEDIUM
MAR Return 5-day cumulative residual -4.8% (FOLLOW-THROUGH) An EPS beat of ~$3.10 vs. $3.05 consensus is offset by FY2026 EPS guidance of ~$11.60 vs. $11.66 consensus, implying roughly $8.50 of second-half EPS versus approximately $8.61 embedded in consensus; weaker RevPAR quality and negative out-period revisions should extend the initial decline. MEDIUM