MAR Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-03

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MAR Report Adjusted diluted EPS BEAT pred ~$3.09 vs. cons $3.04 MEDIUM
MAR Report Worldwide constant-dollar RevPAR growth BEAT pred ~2.4% vs. cons 2.1% MEDIUM
MAR Report Gross fee revenue IN-LINE pred ~$1.555B vs. cons $1.548B MEDIUM
MAR Guide FY26 worldwide constant-dollar RevPAR growth UNCHANGED guide ~2.5% vs. cons 2.5% (FY26) MEDIUM
MAR Guide FY26 adjusted EBITDA UNCHANGED guide ~$5.93B vs. cons $5.94B (FY26) MEDIUM
MAR Guide FY26 adjusted diluted EPS UNCHANGED guide ~$11.55 vs. cons $11.54 (FY26) MEDIUM
MAR Guide FY26 net rooms growth UNCHANGED guide ~4.75% vs. cons 4.75% (FY26) HIGH
MAR Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +2.0% MEDIUM
MAR Return 5-day cumulative residual +1.2% (STABILIZE) A modest EPS and RevPAR beat should support an initial positive reaction, but maintained FY26 RevPAR, EBITDA, and EPS outlooks imply little upward out-period estimate math; the stock should retain most of the gain rather than materially extend it. MEDIUM