MAR Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-03

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MAR Report System-wide RevPAR Growth (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~+2.4% vs. cons +2.0% MEDIUM
MAR Report Gross Fees (Q2 2026) IN-LINE pred ~$1,565M vs. cons $1,554.6M MEDIUM
MAR Report Adj. EPS Diluted Operating (Q2 2026) BEAT pred ~$3.12 vs. cons $3.085 MEDIUM
MAR Guide FY 2026 Global RevPAR Growth (FY 2026) BETTER guide ~+3.0% mid vs. cons +2.52% MEDIUM
MAR Guide FY 2026 Gross Fees (FY 2026) UNCHANGED guide ~$6,005M mid vs. cons $5,999.8M MEDIUM
MAR Guide FY 2026 Adj. EPS (FY 2026) UNCHANGED guide ~$11.675 mid vs. cons $11.663 MEDIUM
MAR Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) +1.5% MEDIUM
MAR Return 5-day cumulative residual +2.5% (STABILIZE) STABILIZE — FY guide midpoint lands at consensus; limited sell-side revision catalyst; credit card renewal optionality and World Cup narrative provide a floor MEDIUM