MAR Earnings Predictions — 2026-08-03

Ticker	Report or Guide	KPI	Prediction	Answer	Confidence
MAR	Report	Adjusted diluted EPS	IN-LINE	pred ~$3.10 vs. cons $3.085	MEDIUM
MAR	Report	Global systemwide RevPAR growth	BEAT	pred ~2.2% vs. cons 1.995%	MEDIUM
MAR	Report	Gross fees	IN-LINE	pred ~$1.557B vs. cons $1.555B	MEDIUM
MAR	Guide	FY26 global RevPAR growth	UNCHANGED	guide 2.0%-3.0% vs. cons 2.516%	MEDIUM
MAR	Guide	FY26 adjusted EPS	LOWER	guide $11.38-$11.63 vs. cons $11.663	MEDIUM
MAR	Guide	FY26 gross fees	LOWER	guide $5.925B-$5.985B vs. cons $6.000B	MEDIUM
MAR	Guide	FY26 adjusted EBITDA	LOWER	guide $5.880B-$5.970B vs. cons $5.970B	MEDIUM
MAR	Guide	2H26 U.S. & Canada demand tone	UNCHANGED	guide positive but slower than 1H vs. qualitative consensus	LOW
MAR	Return	Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500)	+1.5%	—	LOW
MAR	Return	5-day cumulative residual	+4.0% (FOLLOW-THROUGH)	FOLLOW-THROUGH — RevPAR beat supports modest revisions despite constrained FY guide	LOW