| MDLZ |
Report |
Organic net revenue growth |
BEAT |
pred ~+2.5% vs. cons ~+1% |
MEDIUM |
| MDLZ |
Report |
Adjusted EPS |
BEAT |
pred ~$0.71 vs. cons ~$0.68 |
MEDIUM |
| MDLZ |
Report |
Volume/mix (organic) |
MISS |
pred ~-1.0% vs. cons ~0% |
LOW |
| MDLZ |
Guide |
FY2026 Adjusted EPS growth (cc) |
UNCHANGED |
guide reaffirm flat-to-+5% cc (~+2%) vs. cons ~+2% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MDLZ |
Guide |
FY2026 organic net revenue growth |
UNCHANGED |
guide reaffirm flat-to-+2% (~+1.5%) vs. cons ~+1.5% (FY2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MDLZ |
Guide |
H2 EPS inflection / cocoa deflation into gross margin |
UNKNOWN |
guide cocoa ~$2,300-2,500/t vs. cons ~$2,500/t (H2 2026) |
LOW |
| MDLZ |
Guide |
Dividend per share (mid-year hike) |
BETTER |
guide ~$0.53 (+6%) vs. prior $0.50 (Q3 2026) |
MEDIUM |
| MDLZ |
Return |
Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) |
-1.5% |
— |
LOW |
| MDLZ |
Return |
5-day cumulative residual |
-3.0% (FADE) |
Even with a modest headline organic/EPS beat, the print is a transition quarter with EPS still down YoY and soft volume/mix. The flat-to-+5% FY EPS target implies a very steep H2 hockey stick off a ~15%-down H1; a reaffirm-and-reinvest (no raise) plus continued volume erosion validates skepticism on the out-period math. Out-year (2027) estimates get trimmed on reinvestment and cautious cocoa/consumer commentary, so an initial pop fades and the residual drifts lower over the week in a weak staples tape. |
LOW |