MDLZ Earnings Predictions — 2026-07-28

Ticker Report or Guide KPI Prediction Answer Confidence
MDLZ Report Organic net revenue growth BEAT pred ~+2.5% vs. cons ~+1% MEDIUM
MDLZ Report Adjusted EPS BEAT pred ~$0.71 vs. cons ~$0.68 MEDIUM
MDLZ Report Volume/mix (organic) MISS pred ~-1.0% vs. cons ~0% LOW
MDLZ Guide FY2026 Adjusted EPS growth (cc) UNCHANGED guide reaffirm flat-to-+5% cc (~+2%) vs. cons ~+2% (FY2026) MEDIUM
MDLZ Guide FY2026 organic net revenue growth UNCHANGED guide reaffirm flat-to-+2% (~+1.5%) vs. cons ~+1.5% (FY2026) MEDIUM
MDLZ Guide H2 EPS inflection / cocoa deflation into gross margin UNKNOWN guide cocoa ~$2,300-2,500/t vs. cons ~$2,500/t (H2 2026) LOW
MDLZ Guide Dividend per share (mid-year hike) BETTER guide ~$0.53 (+6%) vs. prior $0.50 (Q3 2026) MEDIUM
MDLZ Return Day-1 residual (stock − beta × S&P 500) -1.5% LOW
MDLZ Return 5-day cumulative residual -3.0% (FADE) Even with a modest headline organic/EPS beat, the print is a transition quarter with EPS still down YoY and soft volume/mix. The flat-to-+5% FY EPS target implies a very steep H2 hockey stick off a ~15%-down H1; a reaffirm-and-reinvest (no raise) plus continued volume erosion validates skepticism on the out-period math. Out-year (2027) estimates get trimmed on reinvestment and cautious cocoa/consumer commentary, so an initial pop fades and the residual drifts lower over the week in a weak staples tape. LOW